Recently, some people again interpret the increase in stablecoin supply as "off-chain funds are coming in," and with ETF data, they directly imagine a causal chain... To put it simply, seeing correlation as a signal doesn't mean there's a switch.

An increase in stablecoins could be due to minting, cross-chain activities, market-making reserves, or it could just be everyone wanting to hold onto them for opportunities, with no actual buying pressure landing.

And those large on-chain transfers, or when exchange hot and cold wallets move, being called "smart money" always makes me want to laugh... Sometimes it's just internal rebalancing, risk control address changes, or even just switching wallets for you to guess.
Anyway, I now pay more attention to whether trading sentiment + fund flow can form a closed loop; if not, I just treat it as noise for now.

I'm not regretful about the outcome, but about rushing to craft stories when I saw a bunch of "signals" back then.
That's it for now, less getting caught up.