Spanyol Blokir Polymarket dan Kalshi Karena Izin Judi yang Hilang

Spanyol baru saja menjadi negara terbaru yang menutup pintu pada pasar prediksi. Kementerian Urusan Konsumen menerbitkan proses sanksi terhadap Polymarket dan Kalshi di Berita Resmi Negara Spanyol pada hari Selasa. Ini mengklasifikasikan kedua platform sebagai operator perjudian tanpa izin. Kementerian secara bersamaan memerintahkan penyedia layanan internet untuk memblokir akses ke kedua situs web tersebut di seluruh negeri

Pemblokiran akan berlaku dalam 7 hingga 10 hari, tergantung pada operator. Proses sanksi itu sendiri diperkirakan akan berlangsung selama tiga hingga empat bulan sebelum keputusan akhir. Berita hari ini tentang Polymarket menambahkan Spanyol ke daftar negara yang semakin banyak memperlakukan pasar prediksi sebagai perjudian. Terlepas dari struktur berbasis blockchain mereka atau yang sesuai regulasi.

Why Spain Acted Now

The Ministry’s Directorate General for Gambling Regulation is direct about its reasoning. Prediction markets allow users to bet money on uncertain future outcomes. Under Spanish law, that qualifies as gambling, and gambling operators require an administrative license that neither Polymarket nor Kalshi holds.

Beyond the licensing gap, regulators identified specific consumer protection failures. Licensed gambling operators in Spain must implement age verification systems, access controls for minors, self-exclusion mechanisms for problem gamblers, and ongoing user monitoring. The ministry determined that both platforms lack these safeguards entirely.

The timing adds political dimension. Polymarket recently opened a market on the possible early end of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s term. Kalshi currently offers bets on which national leader will leave office in 2026, with Sánchez listed at 29% probability. Both markets generated attention on Spanish social media. It is attracting regulatory scrutiny that might otherwise have moved more slowly.

A Pattern Forming Across Borders

Spain is not acting in isolation. Brazil blocked both platforms earlier this year as part of a broader crackdown on prediction markets. That was operating without gambling compliance. Indonesia blocked Polymarket last week after bets on President Prabowo’s resignation spread on local social media. The pattern is consistent. The governments classify event-contract betting as gambling, then act when politically sensitive markets emerge on the platforms.

| | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Country | Action | Trigger | | Brazil | Block | Gambling compliance | | Indonesia | Block | Presidential resignation bets | | Spain | Block + Sanctions | Unlicensed operation + political markets |

The global regulatory environment for prediction markets is tightening simultaneously across multiple jurisdictions. Just as the industry reaches multibillion-dollar scale.

The Broader Stakes for Prediction Markets

The Kalshi vs Polymarket competitive dynamic plays out differently across jurisdictions. Kalshi operates under CFTC regulation in the United States, a licensed, compliant framework. Polymarket is blockchain-based and decentralized. In Spain, that distinction is irrelevant. Neither holds a Spanish gambling license, so both face identical treatment

Crypto regulation news from Europe increasingly reflects this pattern. Technical architecture does not override local gambling classification. A decentralized prediction market without local licensing faces the same blocking order as a traditional betting platform. For Spanish users, VPN adoption will almost certainly follow, the same response seen in Indonesia and Brazil. The block restricts access, but it does not eliminate demand from users who understand how to circumvent geographic restrictions.

Apa Berikutnya

Proses sanksi selama 3 hingga 4 bulan akan menentukan hukuman akhir. Kedua platform dapat menantang proses tersebut, meskipun upaya pemberitahuan langsung oleh kementerian di alamat asing yang diketahui sudah gagal. Itu menunjukkan kerjasama yang terbatas dari platform itu sendiri

Untuk industri pasar prediksi secara umum, percepatan penindasan global menimbulkan pertanyaan struktural. Bisakah platform yang menyediakan utilitas peramalan yang nyata, atau yang secara demonstratif lebih akurat daripada jajak pendapat tradisional tentang hasil politik, bertahan? Bisakah mereka bertahan di lingkungan regulasi yang memperlakukan mereka sebagai perjudian secara default? Jawabannya semakin bergantung pada apakah ada yurisdiksi utama yang mengembangkan kerangka kerja yang dirancang khusus yang membedakan pasar prediksi dari taruhan tradisional. Kerangka kerja itu belum ada di Eropa. Sampai saat itu, pemblokiran akan terus berlanjut.