Iran menghancurkan ekspor helium Qatar, produksi chip global menghadapi krisis

问AI · Helium shortage will erupt in weeks, how can chip manufacturers ensure production?

Iran's military strike on Qatar's natural gas export facilities is transforming an energy crisis into a systemic threat to the global semiconductor supply chain.

As a source of one-third of the world's helium supply, Qatar's Ras Laffan facility has suffered "massive" damage, with spot helium prices doubling within 14 days and contract premiums exceeding 30%.

With Qatar's state-owned energy company announcing a 14% reduction in annual helium exports, this crisis has evolved from an anticipated level into a real shock—South Korean chip stocks have plummeted. South Korean chip giants Samsung and SK Hynix rely on Qatar for about 65% of their helium imports, and the market capitalization of South Korean chip manufacturers has evaporated by over $200 billion this month. Experts warn: The real shortage shock has not yet arrived, but "it will truly erupt in a few weeks."

Qatar facility hit hard, one-third of global supply suddenly disappears

Qatar possesses the world's largest single natural gas field, and its Ras Laffan facility is the largest liquefied natural gas plant globally, where helium is extracted as a byproduct of natural gas production, accounting for about 30% of the world's helium supply.

On March 2, an Iranian drone attack forced Qatar's state-owned energy company QatarGas to halt the production of liquefied natural gas and "related products." Four days later, QatarGas announced "force majeure," meaning it could not fulfill contracts with customers.

Last Wednesday and Thursday, Ras Laffan was again struck by Iranian attacks, and QatarGas subsequently reported "massive" damage to the facility, with repair work expected to take years, and annual helium exports will be reduced by 14%.

According to a Wall Street Journal article, all three helium production facilities in Qatar have ceased operations. The publication of the American Chemical Society, C&EN, warns that "if the conflict lasts more than two weeks, the chaos faced by helium users may take months to resolve."

Phil Kornbluth, president of helium consulting firm Kornbluth Helium Consulting, stated:

"This makes the situation worse. The most optimistic scenario is that some helium production can resume in six weeks, but given the current situation, that seems highly unlikely."

Helium spot prices have doubled within 14 days of the crisis, and contract premiums currently exceed 30%. Kornbluth expects prices to rise further, "If the downtime extends, contract prices could increase significantly, there is a lot of room for price increases."

However, Kornbluth also pointed out that the shortage has not yet truly arrived. Helium containers being loaded at the time of the conflict will still take weeks to reach Asia. "No one has cut supply yet, but in a few weeks, the shortage will truly erupt."

Helium: The undervalued lifeline of chip manufacturing

Helium is perceived by the public as just an inert gas that makes balloons float, but in the semiconductor manufacturing field, it is an irreplaceable key material in the wafer cooling process.

In the etching process of chip manufacturing, helium gas needs to be continuously blown onto the back of the wafer to quickly and evenly carry away heat, maintaining stable temperatures on the wafer surface.

Jacob Feldgoise, an analyst at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technologies, noted, In this process, "helium is an excellent thermal conductor; chip factories blow helium onto the back of the wafer to accelerate heat dissipation and maintain consistency in cooling."

Professor Jong-hwan Lee of Sangmyung University in South Korea clearly stated: Under current semiconductor manufacturing processes, there is no feasible alternative that can replace helium for cooling wafers.

The industrial uses of helium extend to the medical and aerospace fields—medical industries use it to cool superconducting magnets in MRI machines, while the aerospace industry uses it to clean rocket fuel tanks. With companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin increasing their launch frequencies, this demand continues to grow.

It is noteworthy that the physical characteristics of helium make its storage and transportation extremely complex: Helium molecules are very small, and even the tiniest gaps can cause leaks; liquid helium must be stored in insulated containers, transported through the Strait of Hormuz, and these specialized containers can only keep helium for 35 to 48 days. After the time limit, helium will vaporize and dissipate through pressure relief valves.

Currently, about 200 of these containers are stranded in the Middle East, each costing about $1 million, and the global reserve of containers is extremely limited. Kornbluth stated,

"Moving these containers from Qatar to other places where helium can be filled will take a considerable amount of time. This initial supply chain reorganization period is likely to be the most severe phase of this shortage."

South Korean chip giants are hit hardest, market capitalization evaporates by over $200 billion

This crisis has had a particularly direct impact on the South Korean semiconductor industry.

According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, data from the Korea Trade Association shows that 64.7% of South Korea's helium imports in 2025 come from Qatar.

Fitch Ratings noted in a report that South Korea is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to helium supply shortages, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix— the two largest memory chip manufacturers globally—facing significant supply risks.

The Seoul government has listed helium as one of the 14 semiconductor supply chain materials that need to be closely monitored due to war. Professor Jong-hwan Lee warned:

"Even a disruption in just a few materials can shake the entire semiconductor manufacturing process, as each production stage relies on the previous stage."

The market has already reacted: South Korean chip manufacturers have seen their market capitalization evaporate by over $200 billion this month, as investors digest expectations of a 15% to 20% decline in production by 2026.

According to the Wall Street Journal article, SK Hynix has a certain helium inventory and has secured new supply channels, currently distancing itself from the immediate impact. However, the medium-term risks remain difficult to eliminate— even if supplies are not completely interrupted, switching to verified alternative suppliers also takes time.

Bloomberg economic analyst Michael Deng pointed out: "The helium shortage may force chip manufacturers to prioritize the production of higher-margin AI chips over lower-margin components." This means that the consumer chip market will be under pressure first.

Global supply structure and limitations of alternatives

Global helium production is highly concentrated.

The United States is the largest producer, with a production of 81 million cubic meters last year; Qatar, Algeria, and Russia are other major producers, but Russian supplies have been restricted by U.S. and EU sanctions. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the U.S. has 8.5 billion cubic meters of recoverable helium reserves, while the remaining global reserves are 31.3 billion cubic meters.

Although the U.S. and Australia theoretically could provide alternative supplies, the reorganization of the supply chain is not a quick process. Kornbluth pointed out that about 200 specialized storage and transportation containers are stranded in the Middle East, and reallocating these containers and establishing new supply routes is itself the most challenging bottleneck in this crisis.

Experts generally believe that a comprehensive helium crisis is unlikely to occur— in the event of a shortage, the helium industry will allocate supplies based on importance, with the semiconductor and medical industries prioritized for assurance.

Since helium accounts for a small proportion of total production costs in semiconductors, chip factories are "willing to pay higher prices" to ensure supply. But this logic is premised on the timely availability of alternative supplies.

Bromine: The next potential flashpoint

The Wall Street Journal article also pointed out that, besides helium, another critical semiconductor raw material, bromine, is equally worth monitoring. Bromine is used in the semiconductor etching process, and high-purity hydrobromic acid is widely used in the polysilicon etching stages of DRAM and NAND flash memory manufacturing.

97.5% of South Korea's bromine imports come from Israel, making it one of the 14 semiconductor supply chain items with the highest dependence on the Middle East. Currently, bromine is still classified as a potential risk factor and remains in a relatively safe zone, but if the situation escalates further, its vulnerability will be quickly exposed.