Bitcoin entry in 2026, this round of market action is no longer the rebound routine from the initial phase of previous cycles.

From a technical perspective, there are indeed some signals worth being a bit optimistic about, but looking at the larger structural environment, the conditions for a sustained bull market don't seem sufficient enough. Historical experience tells us that when price breaks below key support like the annual line, coupled with insufficient trading volume and weak capital inflows, the cycle can easily shift into a more challenging situation.

On-chain data validates this judgment. Whales are systematically reducing their positions in an orderly manner, and their selling pressure is sufficient to offset retail buying demand, resulting in the market being stuck in a prolonged consolidation pattern at the top. This is neither a capitulation-style crash nor the frenzy of a bubble top, but rather a stalemate state.

What's more striking is that realized capitalization and new address growth data both point to the same conclusion: **new money isn't flowing in, and new players aren't particularly active**. This means the current market lacks the driving force of new capital inflows, and the space for incremental market expansion is being significantly compressed.

In other words, bearish characteristics haven't completely exited the stage, and the major uptrend of a bull market hasn't truly started either. The current phase is more about various forces pulling and testing each other, with structural pressure still present.