Recently, I've been feeling a bit tempted to look at large on-chain transfers again, but honestly, before copying, I really need to think clearly: is the other party slowly building a position, or are they using spot/perpetuals for hedging? Many "whales buying in" actually open opposite positions the next second to lock in volatility; if you follow in, you only catch the emotions, and your position gets washed back and forth.

I'm currently quite simple: first check if the same address is depositing and withdrawing from exchanges at the same time, and whether their contract positions are changing synchronously, then see how many times they buy and whether the time intervals seem like they are controlling costs. Over on Layer2, they argue daily about TPS, fees, and subsidies, but I’m more interested in traces of cross-chain repositioning. The bigger the subsidy, the easier it is to confuse people’s actions... Anyway, when I feel anxious, I just note it down more often and place fewer orders. We’ll talk more next time.