La audiencia de la Reserva Federal de "forma mayor que sustancia": Wash no habló de tasas de interés, pero tranquilizó a los criptomercados

Original ｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Golem (@web3_golem)



April 21, 10 p.m. Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Woor attended a Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing, answering questions from the committee. According to The Wall Street Journal, the content involved his commitments to monetary policy, Federal Reserve independence, and more.

At the hearing, when faced with questions about Fed independence, Woor stated he would be independent of Trump, and Trump had never asked him to commit to any specific interest rate decisions. He further defended that even if Trump had asked, he would never agree. Besides such statements, Woor avoided answering questions related to Trump. Regarding monetary policy, Woor criticized the Fed institution, believing it needs institutional reforms in policy-making, but made few specific statements on monetary policy, only mentioning that the Fed should gradually and cautiously shrink its balance sheet, without any clear indication of rate cuts.

This may also be intentional on Woor’s part. According to an opening statement obtained early by Bloomberg, although Woor’s prepared remarks were nearly 2000 words—far exceeding the approximately 850 to 900 words of Powell and former Chair Yellen during their initial hearings—the statements on the direction of monetary policy were almost nonexistent. Woor’s move aligns with his consistent stance that Fed officials should not comment on interest rates in advance.

But for investors paying attention to this hearing, any expectations may be disappointed. Because from the content and outcome, the actual significance of this hearing is limited. Bloomberg columnist John Authers even characterized it before the hearing as a “show more than substance,” a political performance. Ultimately, whether Woor’s nomination can smoothly pass the Senate confirmation depends on political negotiations outside the scene, not on anything Woor said on stage.

Stubborn Trump and Innocent Woor

Previously, Odaily Planet Daily analyzed that the importance of this hearing lies in its potential to decide whether Powell will stay or leave after his term ends on May 15. If Woor’s nomination is not confirmed by the Senate this time, Powell is very likely to remain as interim Fed chair after his term expires. (Read more: Powell’s reappointment probability soars to 98%, is Trump’s “firing order” just talk?)

However, the result is that after this hearing, the market still cannot determine whether Woor’s Fed chair nomination will be confirmed as scheduled, because the main obstacle, Thom Tillis, has not even had effective dialogue with Woor.

Thom Tillis previously publicly stated that he would not support Woor’s nomination process being transferred to the Senate for a full vote unless Trump abandons his investigation into Powell. During the April 21 hearing, Tillis did not even ask Woor questions but instead showed a slide explaining the cost overruns in the Fed building renovation project. In the end, he expressed that his dissatisfaction was not directed at Woor, praising Woor as “highly qualified and impeccable,” but said he could only support Woor’s confirmation if the investigation was concluded.

Therefore, the content of the hearing no longer determines much. The key to whether Trump can finally dismiss Powell as scheduled depends on whether the Senate confirms Woor’s nomination in time, which again hinges on whether Trump is willing to give up the investigation into Powell.

On April 21, Trump also discussed the Fed and interest rate issues in a recent interview. He said he would be disappointed if the new Fed chair (Woor) does not cut rates quickly, but also emphasized the need to investigate the cost overruns of the Fed building. The push for Woor to cut rates and investigate Powell are parallel, and Trump shows no sign of backing down.

As John Authers said, the real game is happening outside the hearing, and Woor might even be “accidentally caught in the crossfire.” Either Tillis makes concessions proactively, or Woor uses rate cuts as leverage to persuade Trump to abandon the investigation into Powell, allowing him to take over the Fed sooner. Woor’s relationship with Trump is unusual: Woor’s father-in-law, Ronald Steven Lauder, is the sole heir of the global cosmetics giant Estée Lauder, and he is also a Republican benefactor and Trump’s college classmate. Therefore, if Woor truly aims to control the Fed early, he might be able to persuade Trump to give up the investigation.

Otherwise, if this deadlock continues until Powell’s term ends, Trump might choose to dismiss Powell to resolve the issue. As Odaily Planet Daily previously analyzed, the outcome could favor Powell. Notably, according to Odaily Seer’s monitoring, the probability of Powell leaving office after his term ends remains at 2%. However, a closer look at the contract’s settlement rules shows that “if Powell resigns or is dismissed before the market’s end date, the market will immediately settle as ‘Yes’ regardless of when the resignation or dismissal takes effect.”

Market Settlement Rules for Powell’s Post-Term Resignation

In other words, as soon as Trump announces Powell’s dismissal, the event will be settled. Although Powell could sue to make the dismissal effective during the lawsuit, lawsuits are lengthy processes. Therefore, the rule that “regardless of when the resignation or dismissal takes effect, the market is immediately settled as Yes” leaves room for exploitation. (Odaily note: The above is solely the author’s personal judgment and does not constitute any advice.)

Woor: Digital Assets Are Part of the U.S. Financial Industry

But for the crypto industry, there is some news from this hearing. Previously, it was disclosed that Woor holds cryptocurrencies, Polymarket, and SpaceX stocks, seen as a friendly attitude toward the crypto sector.

During the hearing, Woor promised that if his nomination is approved, he would divest related assets before taking office when questioned about his over $100 million in disclosed assets and potential conflicts of interest. He further stated that digital assets are part of the U.S. financial industry, affirming the legitimacy and importance of crypto in America. Although a brief mention, it is definitely good news that someone about to hold one of the most powerful positions in the global economy shows himself as crypto-friendly.