¡El trimestre más ocupado de la historia! En el primer trimestre de 2026, Ethereum superó los 200 millones de transacciones, ¿por qué el precio de la moneda no siguió el ritmo?

Ethereum’s strong performance in the first quarter of 2026, with the mainnet transaction volume surpassing 200 million for the first time, setting a new record. Although on-chain activity is lively due to the booming development of Layer 2 and stablecoins, the token price diverges from the fundamentals.

Ethereum delivered an impressive report card in the first quarter of this year, with on-chain activity reaching its busiest quarter ever, but even with the recovery of fundamentals, the token price still shows no signs of improvement, disappointing many investors. Is this three-year-long strong comeback a prelude to the next bull cycle, or does it hide underlying concerns?

According to the latest statistics from blockchain data platform Artemis, in the first quarter of 2026, the Ethereum mainnet processed a total of 200.4 million transactions, breaking the 200 million mark for the first time in a single quarter. Looking back at 2023, Ethereum’s quarterly transaction volume once fell to 90 million; in 2024, it hovered between 100 million and 120 million throughout the year.

The revival of on-chain activity in Ethereum actually began quietly in mid-2025, with steady growth each quarter. In the first quarter of this year, the transaction volume jumped 43% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, from 145 million, forming a beautiful “U-shaped growth curve” from the bottom in 2023.

However, paradoxically, the market’s fundamental enthusiasm has not reflected in the token price. Currently, Ether hovers around $2,355, more than 50% below the historic high of nearly $5,000 reached in August last year. This stark divergence perhaps provides an opportunity for investors skilled at extracting value from fundamentals to consider strategic positioning.

The main driver behind this surge in transaction flow is mainly attributed to “Layer 2 scaling solutions.” Currently, the two largest Layer 2 networks are Base and Arbitrum, with users flocking to these platforms to pursue lower transaction fees. These activities ultimately reflect on the Ethereum mainnet data through “settlements” and “cross-chain bridges.”

Another major contributor is stablecoins. According to data platform Token Terminal, the total supply of stablecoins on Ethereum has reached a record high of $180 billion, accounting for about 60% of the global stablecoin market.

However, some analysts point out risks: the enthusiasm for Layer 2 may mask concerns over declining mainnet transaction fee revenue. Since Ethereum completed the “Cancun upgrade” (Dencun upgrade), significantly reducing L2 data storage costs, the fees earned per transaction have greatly diminished. In other words, even with a substantial increase in on-chain activity, it cannot directly translate into more token “burning” as in the past, making it difficult to push up the token price directly.

Overall, Ethereum’s on-chain activity has completed a multi-year recovery, which historically tends to lead price movements.

As for whether Ethereum’s record-breaking first quarter signals the start of the next major rally or a top in the cycle, the answer will depend on whether transaction volume can continue to stay above 200 million in the second quarter; more importantly, this growth momentum must come from new “real users,” not from bot activity creating a false sense of prosperity.

• This article is reprinted with permission from: 《區塊客》
• Original title: 《The Busiest Quarter in History! Ethereum Q1 Transaction Count Breaks 200 Million, Why Hasn’t the Price Kept Up?》
• Original author: 區塊妹 MEL