Is XRP’s 4-hour chart lying? $XRP /USDT - SHORT Trading Plan: Entry: 1.4691 – 1.4805 SL: 1.5295 TP1: 1.4337 TP2: 1.4064 TP3: 1.3653 Why focus on this setup? - The 1D trend is range-bound, but the 4h direction is clearly SHORT, Conf 55—this is not a one-way move, but selling near the top of the range. - The current price is 1.4748, close to entry_ref; RSI(15m) is 55.4, not yet overbought, but the upside for the rebound is limited. - ATR(1h) is 0.0228, indicating moderate volatility. The SL is set at 1.5295 (approximately 3.7% risk), while TP1 is at 1.4337 (2.8% profit), so the risk-reward ratio is not bad. - Why now? Because the price is in the upper-middle part of the range and the 4h bias has turned bearish. We’re waiting for confirmation of a short position near 1.4805, rather than chasing the price higher. Discussion: Will this move reach TP1 at 1.4337 first, or will a direct false breakout above 1.4805 hit your stop-loss?

The Liquidity Lever - How Treasury Buyback Expansion Lit The Fuse Under Crypto The most talked about macro shift this week did not come from the Fed. It came from the Treasury. The department floated an expansion of its buyback program, with estimates pointing to $BTCbillion in capacity this year. The aim is to improve off-the-run bond market function, but the side effect is pure liquidity. How buybacks help crypto: When Treasury buys back old bonds, it pays dealers with cash. Dealer balance sheet frees up. That cash then flows into repo, money funds, and risk assets. For crypto, which trades as a high-beta liquidity proxy, that flow matters more than any single headline. More dealer capacity means more risk appetite for basis trades and more cash for ETF market makers to hedge. What market saw on Aug 20: • Bitcoin jumped from $SOLto $71.5kin two days, best two-day gain since 2024. • Ether and Solana led beta, up over 8% on the day, a sign of risk-on rotation, not just short cover. • Shorts worth over $1Bwere wiped in an hour, near $5Bover two days. • Spot ETF inflow hit $606Mfor Bitcoin and $219Mfor Ether, showing real spot bid behind futures squeeze. • Realized vol, which had been at yearly lows, spiked, forcing vol sellers to buy back. Why this buyback matters more than past ones: • Scale: $171Bis large enough to offset a month of QT. That matters when Fed balance sheet is still shrinking. • Timing: it lands as Fed holds rates high and keeps QT running. Treasury is adding liquidity while Fed is draining it. That split keeps risk bid even when rate cut odds fade after Jackson Hole. • Plumbing: off-the-run bonds clog dealer books. Cleaning them up lowers dealer leverage costs, which lowers funding cost for basis trades. Cheaper basis means more cash and carry inflow into crypto via ETF and futures arb. Trader read: • Buybacks are a slow drip, not a one-day pump. Front-run the announcement, then buy dips into settlement days when cash actually hits dealers. The Aug 20 move was front-run, but follow-through depends on settlement pace. • Track dealer balance sheet proxies: primary dealer holdings, repo fails, SOFR spread. When those ease, crypto tends to lag by 1-2 days then catch up. • Watch stablecoin mint. After buyback news, stablecoin supply on Ether rose to $155.9B,up 22% YoY, a sign that fresh dollars entered crypto rails • Position via spot plus long call, not naked short vol. Low vol + high open interest + buyback headline is a classic squeeze setup. • Risk: if Treasury funds buybacks by issuing more bills, net liquidity impact shrinks. So track bill issuance vs buyback pace. If bill supply jumps, the lift fades. For builders, cheap funding lowers cost to hedge treasury. For funds, it lowers hurdle to add crypto as collateral in multi-asset books. This is why a bond market tool moved a crypto market: liquidity is the tide, price is the boat. When tide rises by $171B,boats rise fast, even if rates stay high. #LiquidityShock #TreasuryBuyback $BTC $GT $ETH $SOL $XRP

I originally wanted to cut my losses and sacrifice the position to the heavens, but the ritual never happened—the meat roasted itself. When the sell-off began in the early session, $NAS100 dropped and then bounced back. When it bounced to 29885.23, I watched it for a long time: the rebound looked lively, but in reality, every candlestick was losing more and more momentum. This was a weak rebound, not a reversal, so I decisively entered a short position. I just opened the chart and saw that it has now reached 29196.75. My unrealized gain is +214.15%. I’ve taken profit on 80% of the position and put it in my pocket, while moving the stop loss on the remaining 20% above the entry price. If it keeps moving down, I’ll let the profits fly. Don’t lose your patience grinding away in a range, only to try to win back your dignity in a one-way move. This piece of meat is delicious, but once it’s in your mouth, don’t spit it back out. For those who haven’t boarded yet, take it from me: now is not the time to rush in. Wait for a more comfortable entry point in the next round. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is patience. $LAB $XRP