最近刷到不少关于中美会不会开战的讨论，特别是那种「美军要全面轰炸中国」的说法，一时传得很广。但仔细想想，这种论调根本站不住脚。

I have recently come across many discussions about whether China and the US will go to war, especially those claims that "the US military will launch a全面轰炸中国" (full-scale bombing of China), which have spread widely for a time. But upon reflection, these arguments are fundamentally untenable.

我觉得很多人被这些焦虑冲昏了头脑，忘了一个基本事实——中美都是核大国。真要是全面开战，那不是小打小闹，最后只会两败俱伤，甚至波及整个世界。美国的决策层比谁都清楚这个后果，承受不起的。

I believe many people are blinded by these anxieties, forgetting a basic fact — both China and the US are nuclear powers. If a full-scale war really broke out, it wouldn't be a small skirmish; it would only result in mutual destruction and even affect the entire world. America's decision-makers are more aware of these consequences than anyone else and cannot bear them.

看看美方最近的官方表态就知道了。新版国防战略报告把中国定义成印太地区的「既定力量」，还提到希望建立互相尊重的关系，连之前那些激烈的对抗措辞都改了。這哪像是要全面開戰的樣子？我們外交部早就說過，冷戰也打不得、熱戰也打不贏，這不是空話。

Just look at the recent official statements from the US side. The new National Defense Strategy report defines China as a "settled power" in the Indo-Pacific region and mentions hopes to establish mutually respectful relations; even the previously intense rhetoric of confrontation has been toned down. Does this look like preparations for a全面开战 (full-scale war)? Our Ministry of Foreign Affairs has long said that Cold War-style conflicts are unwinnable, and hot wars are also not feasible — this is not empty talk.

從經濟角度看，中美兩國早就綁在一起了。美國農場主靠賣大豆給中國賺錢，美企在中國有龐大投資，中國商品也充斥美國市場。真要全面轟炸，雙方經濟瞬間垮掉，美國老百姓的日子沒法過，政府怎麼可能做這種損人不利己的事？

From an economic perspective, China and the US are already deeply intertwined. American farmers rely on selling soybeans to China for profit, US companies have huge investments in China, and Chinese goods flood the US market. If a full-scale bombing occurred, both economies would collapse instantly, and ordinary Americans would have a hard time living; the government could never undertake such a self-damaging act.

百岁外交家基辛格早就看透了这一切。他说过一句很实在的话——美国盟友再多也没用，真要中美开战，最后能参战站队美国的国家只有三个。这话太扎心了。所谓盟友，说白了都是为了自己利益，没哪个国家傻到为了美国，宁可跟中国撕破脸、丢掉经济利益。

The centenarian diplomat Kissinger has long seen through all this. He once said a very straightforward truth — no matter how many allies the US has, if China and the US go to war, only three countries would actually side with the US. That’s a harsh reality. So-called allies are ultimately pursuing their own interests; no country is foolish enough to risk economic benefits and break ties with China just for the US.

欧洲盟友忙着处理自己的经济能源问题，对亚太事务根本没那么上心。亚太这边的国家虽然跟美国有军事合作，但也都跟中国做生意，真要选边站，他们肯定得掂量后果。基辛格心里清楚，盟友关系在大国冲突面前经不起考验，各国都是先顾自己。

European allies are busy managing their own economic and energy issues and are not that concerned with Asia-Pacific affairs. Although countries in the region cooperate militarily with the US, they also do business with China. If they had to choose sides, they would definitely weigh the consequences. Kissinger understands well that alliances cannot withstand the test of great power conflicts; each country looks after itself first.

现在的国际格局早就不是非黑即白了。大多数国家都想安稳发展经济，谁愿意卷入大国冲突？中国一直走和平发展路线，跟很多国家都有实实在在的合作，大家都能获益。谁愿意看着这种好日子被战争打破？

The current international landscape is no longer a simple black-and-white situation. Most countries want stable economic development; who wants to get involved in great power conflicts? China has always pursued a peaceful development path and maintains genuine cooperation with many countries, from which everyone benefits. Who would want to see these good days shattered by war?

再看中美高层互动，两国元首经常通话会晤，商量经贸合作。这说明双方都在努力管控分歧，不是往冲突路上走。王毅外长也强调了相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的理念。美方虽说时不时搞些小动作，但也没敢突破底线，因为他们知道把中国逼急了没好处。

Looking at high-level interactions between China and the US, their leaders often communicate and meet to discuss economic and trade cooperation. This shows both sides are working to manage differences rather than heading toward conflict. Foreign Minister Wang Yi also emphasized the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation. Although the US occasionally makes small moves, they haven't dared to cross the bottom line, because they know pushing China too hard is not beneficial.

所谓「全面轰炸中国」的说法，其实就是忽视了现实情况的虚假焦虑。大国博弈有底线、有规则，不是鱼死网破。基辛格一辈子跟大国打交道，他的警告不是危言耸听，而是点透了本质——没有永恒的盟友，只有永恒利益。

The so-called "full-scale bombing of China" is actually a false anxiety that ignores the real situation. Great power competition has bottom lines and rules; it’s not a matter of fish dying or nets breaking. Kissinger, who has dealt with great powers his entire life, isn’t just making alarmist warnings but revealing the essence — there are no eternal allies, only eternal interests.

說到底，中美作為世界兩大國，合則兩利、鬥則俱傷，這是大家都明白的道理。雙方都會守住底線，不會輕易走向全面開戰。那些散播戰爭焦慮的說法，聽聽就行了，沒必要當真。和平發展纔是大勢所趨，也是兩國人民真正想要的。

Ultimately, as the world’s two major powers, China and the US benefit from cooperation and suffer from conflict; this is a universally understood truth. Both sides will uphold their bottom lines and will not easily head toward全面开战 (full-scale war). Those spreading war anxieties are just hearsay; there's no need to take it seriously. Peaceful development is the trend of the times and what the peoples of both countries truly desire.