西班牙封鎖 Polymarket 和 Kalshi，因缺少賭博許可證

西班牙剛成為最新一個關閉預測市場的國家。消費者事務部於週二在西班牙官方公報上公布了對Polymarket和Kalshi的制裁程序。它將兩個平台都列為未經許可的賭博運營商。該部門同時已命令網際網路服務提供商封鎖兩個網站的訪問，覆蓋全國範圍。

封鎖將在7到10天內生效，具體取決於運營商。制裁程序預計將持續三到四個月，之後才會有最終裁決。Polymarket今日新聞補充，西班牙加入了一個日益擴大的國家名單，將預測市場視為賭博，無論它們是基於區塊鏈還是符合法規的結構。

Why Spain Acted Now

The Ministry’s Directorate General for Gambling Regulation is direct about its reasoning. Prediction markets allow users to bet money on uncertain future outcomes. Under Spanish law, that qualifies as gambling, and gambling operators require an administrative license that neither Polymarket nor Kalshi holds.

Beyond the licensing gap, regulators identified specific consumer protection failures. Licensed gambling operators in Spain must implement age verification systems, access controls for minors, self-exclusion mechanisms for problem gamblers, and ongoing user monitoring. The ministry determined that both platforms lack these safeguards entirely.

The timing adds political dimension. Polymarket recently opened a market on the possible early end of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s term. Kalshi currently offers bets on which national leader will leave office in 2026, with Sánchez listed at 29% probability. Both markets generated attention on Spanish social media. It is attracting regulatory scrutiny that might otherwise have moved more slowly.

A Pattern Forming Across Borders

Spain is not acting in isolation. Brazil blocked both platforms earlier this year as part of a broader crackdown on prediction markets. That was operating without gambling compliance. Indonesia blocked Polymarket last week after bets on President Prabowo’s resignation spread on local social media. The pattern is consistent. The governments classify event-contract betting as gambling, then act when politically sensitive markets emerge on the platforms.

| | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Country | Action | Trigger | | Brazil | Block | Gambling compliance | | Indonesia | Block | Presidential resignation bets | | Spain | Block + Sanctions | Unlicensed operation + political markets |

The global regulatory environment for prediction markets is tightening simultaneously across multiple jurisdictions. Just as the industry reaches multibillion-dollar scale.

The Broader Stakes for Prediction Markets

The Kalshi vs Polymarket competitive dynamic plays out differently across jurisdictions. Kalshi operates under CFTC regulation in the United States, a licensed, compliant framework. Polymarket is blockchain-based and decentralized. In Spain, that distinction is irrelevant. Neither holds a Spanish gambling license, so both face identical treatment

Crypto regulation news from Europe increasingly reflects this pattern. Technical architecture does not override local gambling classification. A decentralized prediction market without local licensing faces the same blocking order as a traditional betting platform. For Spanish users, VPN adoption will almost certainly follow, the same response seen in Indonesia and Brazil. The block restricts access, but it does not eliminate demand from users who understand how to circumvent geographic restrictions.

接下來會怎樣

三到四個月的制裁程序將決定最終的處罰。兩個平台都可以對程序提出異議，儘管部門已在已知的外國地址進行的直接通知嘗試已經失敗。這表明平台本身的合作有限。

對於預測市場行業來說，全球加速的打擊行動提出了一個結構性問題。那些提供真正預測功能、或在政治結果預測上明顯比傳統民意調查更準確的平台，能否在將它們視為賭博的監管環境中生存？答案越來越依賴於任何主要法域是否制定一個專門的框架，將預測市場與傳統投注區分開來。這樣的框架在歐洲尚不存在。在此之前，封鎖將會持續。