Trump's economic approval rating and Wall Street performance are disconnected, rooted in the direct impact of geopolitical conflicts on energy prices. Since the U.S.-Israel joint strike on Iran at the end of February, Brent crude oil has surged from $70 to $118, although it recently retreated to $96, but gasoline prices breaking above $4 per gallon have made the public indifferent to the "manufacturing rebound." This perceptual gap was evident in the prediction markets in March, when the probability of a "Democratic sweep" in the midterm elections on Polymarket surpassed 46%.

The key detail is that on May 5, Trump publicly dismissed the poll showing only 32% public support for the Iran war as "fake," but the Financial Times poll directly pointed to economic management, with disapproval rising above 55%. This contrasts with the market's optimistic expectation in early April that the war was "about to end," indicating that geopolitical risks continue to pressure people's livelihoods and have not eased due to battlefield signals, and may even be eroding the credibility of his core campaign promise of economic governance.
Hovering over half of American voters oppose Trump's economic policies
On May 10, the latest Financial Times poll showed that over half of American voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy, mainly concerned about inflation, rising living costs, and the impact of the Iran war on energy prices.
Despite employment reports showing new jobs and a manufacturing rebound, and stock markets rising, the public's perception of actual living costs has caused Trump's economic approval to drop to about 37%, with disapproval exceeding 55%.
The poll results highlight a disconnect between Wall Street and ordinary people's economic perceptions, which could affect the Republican Party's performance in the 2026 midterm elections. $TRUMP
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