France announced increased troop deployment to the Middle East, and spot gold fell to $4,550, declining 2.19% intraday; silver plummeted 6.00%; Bitcoin briefly broke below $70,000. Geopolitical conflict escalation, yet safe-haven assets fell instead of rising—seemingly anomalous, but the logic is actually clear.

As mentioned before, the market is currently pricing not "risk events," but the transmission chain of "oil prices → inflation → interest rates." Increased troop deployment has intensified expectations of Hormuz Strait blockade, oil prices remain elevated, inflation expectations heat up, directly delaying the Fed's rate-cutting timeline, pushing up real rate expectations—this directly suppresses gold, an interest-free asset, with silver experiencing sharper declines due to its industrial properties. Bitcoin briefly breaking below $70,000 further confirms: facing tightening liquidity expectations, crypto assets are equally unable to escape. The gains accumulated from consecutive ETF net inflows previously are being given back under macro pressure.

In the short term, as long as the combination of "elevated oil prices + no rate-cut hope" remains unchanged, the geopolitical conflict itself is no longer a reason for gold to rally. The real signal of reversal may have to wait until energy risks subside and the market reprices the rate-cut path. #美联储3月议息会议 $SIREN