Brent crude futures broke above $100/barrel for the first time in two months, settling at $100.69 on Thursday, up over 7%. WTI surged 6.2% to $92.19. The trigger: Houthi rebels attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, with Saudi Arabia confirming one vessel caught fire. The Strait of Hormuz is nearly paralyzed while the Bab el-Mandeb is also under threat — both key Middle East oil chokepoints are now compromised. Prompt Brent physical crude surpassed $105/barrel. Trump warned of bombing Iranian bridges and power plants, saying Iran will be held responsible if Houthi attacks continue. Goldman Sachs projects Brent could break $120 in Q4 if the Strait disruption extends through 2027. The oil spike reignited inflation fears — 10-year Treasury yields topped 4.7%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 2.3%. Market odds for a Fed rate hike next week have climbed to ~25%.
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