Goldman Sachs eleva preço-alvo da Kioxia! Preço-alvo chega a 116.000 ienes, classificação de compra: IA causa escassez de NAND até 2028.

AI Data Centers' Storage Demand Continues to Heat Up; Goldman Sachs, in a June 30 Report, Raised Kioxia's 12-Month Target Price to 116,000 Yen and Maintained a Buy Rating. Goldman Sachs Believes the NAND Market's Supply-Demand Tightness Exceeds Previous Expectations, and This Price Hike Cycle May Extend to Mid-2027, with Some Segments Even Holding Until 2028.
(Previous: Barclays Sharply Adjusts SK hynix Target Price! "Doubles" to 2,300 Euros)
(Background: Nine Major U.S. Industries Jointly Petition the Trump Administration: Memory Price Hikes and Shortages Are Killing Us)

Table of Contents

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• Second Upgrade Within a Month
• Why NAND Won't Crash This Time
• Goldman Sachs' Two Bets, Also Citing Five Risks

Key Summary

• Goldman Sachs on 6/30 Raised Kioxia's 12-Month Target Price to 116,000 Yen, Maintaining a Buy Rating
• NAND Supply-Demand Tightness Exceeds Expectations; Price Hike Cycle May Extend to Mid-2027, Some Segments Until 2028
• Goldman Sachs Estimates Kioxia's Quarterly Operating Profit Could Reach 1.417 Trillion Yen, Above Its Own Guidance of 1.298 Trillion and Bloomberg Consensus of 1.36 Trillion

The AI-Driven Memory Boom Is Pushing an Old Japanese Company into the Spotlight. Goldman Sachs Released a Report on June 30, Raising the 12-Month Target Price for Kioxia, the World's Third-Largest NAND Flash Manufacturer, to 116,000 Yen, Maintaining a Buy Rating. Goldman Sachs' Core Judgement Is That NAND Supply-Demand Tightness Exceeds Previous Expectations, and the Price Increase Cycle May Extend to Mid-2027, with Some Segments Persisting Until 2028.

NAND Flash Memory Is the Core of SSDs, Retaining Data Even When Power Is Off, and Is the Backbone of AI Data Center Storage Architecture. As AI Servers and Enterprise SSDs Develop an Increasing Appetite for High-Performance Storage, This Previously Underappreciated Memory Segment Has Suddenly Become a Target Investors Are Eagerly Watching.

Second Upgrade Within a Month

This Is Already Goldman Sachs' Second Upgrade of Kioxia's Target Price Within a Month. On May 31, Goldman Sachs Upgraded Its Rating from Neutral to Buy, Raising the Target Price from 48,000 Yen to 93,000 Yen; Less Than a Month Later, It Pushed It Further to 116,000 Yen. Kioxia's Stock Has Surged Over 660% This Year, Making It the Best-Performing Semiconductor Stock Globally.

In the Latest Report, Goldman Sachs Raised Its Operating Profit Forecasts for Kioxia for Fiscal Years 2027 to 2029 (FY3/27 to FY3/29) by 9%, 19%, and 29% Respectively, and Its Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecasts by 10%, 19%, and 29% Respectively. On a Calendar Year Basis, Goldman Sachs Expects NAND Average Selling Prices to Surge in 2026, and Grow Another 38% in 2027, Well Above the Previous Estimate of 27%.

Why NAND Won't Crash This Time

NAND Has Traditionally Been the Most Prone to Oversupply and Cyclicality Among Memory Families Because the Number of Players Is Greater Than in the DRAM and HDD Industries. In Past Cycles, the Market Always Feared a Surge in Supply Leading to a Collapse. But Goldman Sachs Believes the Profit Peak of This Upswing Cycle May Be Higher Than Previously Assumed by the Market, and May Last Longer.

Goldman Sachs: The Profit Peak of This NAND Upswing Cycle May Be Higher Than Previously Assumed by the Market, and Can Be Sustained for Longer.

The Key Is a Brake on the Supply Side. Goldman Sachs Cites a Survey of Japanese Distribution Channels, Indicating That Major Memory Manufacturers Still Prioritize Capital Expenditure Toward DRAM Rather Than Aggressively Expanding New NAND Capacity; Against the Backdrop of Expanding AI Demand, New NAND Supply Will Only Be Significantly Released by 2028. By Pouring Money into DRAM First, Major Manufacturers Are Essentially Prolonging the NAND Shortage.

On the Demand Side, Three Sources Provide Support: Rising Demand for Enterprise SSDs, Substitution Demand from Tight HDD Supply, and Potential U.S. Export Controls That May Disrupt Equipment Supply for Some Korean Manufacturers' Factories in China.

Goldman Sachs' Two Bets, Also Citing Five Risks

Kioxia Management Has Recently Also Sent Signals Emphasizing Price and Profit Margins. Goldman Sachs Says the Company Is Not Eager to Lock in Shipment Volumes with Long-Term Agreements, but Rather Emphasizes Price Discipline and Gross Margin Levels. Since Some First-Quarter Bit Shipment Price Negotiations Were Not Yet Concluded When the Company Released Its Earnings Guidance, Goldman Sachs Expects Kioxia's Operating Profit for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2027 (Ending July 31) Could Reach 1.417 Trillion Yen, Above the Company's Own Guidance of 1.298 Trillion and Bloomberg Consensus of 1.36 Trillion.

In Terms of Investment Logic, Goldman Sachs Focuses on Two Points. First, Kioxia, as the World's Third-Largest NAND Manufacturer, Has Relatively Strong Cost Competitiveness; Second, the Company Is Gradually Developing Products for Data Centers, the Fastest-Growing Segment in the NAND Market. As AI Servers and Enterprise SSDs Increase Demand for High-Performance Storage, Kioxia Has the Opportunity to Achieve Higher Profit Margins During the Price Increase Cycle.

However, Goldman Sachs Also Warns That NAND Cyclicality Has Not Disappeared. Risks Include a Slowdown in AI Investment, the Rise of Chinese NAND Manufacturers, Cost Increases or Capacity Utilization Fluctuations Compressing Profit Margins, Significant Appreciation of the Yen, and Weakening NAND Demand from Non-AI Applications.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why Did Goldman Sachs Raise Its Target Price for Kioxia?

Goldman Sachs Believes AI Data Centers Are Driving Up NAND Storage Demand, with Supply-Demand Tightness Exceeding Previous Expectations, and the Price Hike Cycle May Extend to 2028. Therefore, It Raised the 12-Month Target Price to 116,000 Yen and Maintained a Buy Rating.

What Is Kioxia? What Is Its Relationship with NAND?

Kioxia, Formerly Toshiba Memory, Is the World's Third-Largest NAND Flash Manufacturer. NAND Is the Core of SSDs, Retaining Data Even When Power Is Off, and Is the Backbone of AI Data Center Storage Architecture.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.