Trump's 60-day ultimatum came out, my mind went completely blank

Earlier I was still looking at the $BTC chart, hovering at 63,400 like it was dead, and this news directly disrupted my rhythm for tonight.

The memorandum between the US and Iran has been confirmed to take effect, the Strait of Hormuz has resumed navigation, Israel and Lebanon have also reached a ceasefire, which seems positive, but then I saw that the Iranian Foreign Minister will only depart on Saturday, negotiations still need to be refined.

What I was thinking at the time was actually very simple, this kind of geopolitical event has never been a one-way benefit for the crypto circle. If you cease fire, risk aversion sentiment temporarily recedes, funds might flow back into mainstream coins;

But if any step in the negotiations collapses, crude oil will spike first, and $BTC won't escape either.

My personal feeling is that these nodes should not be blindly chased.

Earlier, the ACU wave with over 15x leverage long positions was massively liquidated around 0.08, GMX was also cleared completely at 5.75, although the liquidation volume wasn't large, the direction was very clear — high leverage longs are targets under such news.

I didn't dare to open positions, just watched the chart grind there, waiting for the weekend negotiation news.

Honestly, the only thing I see is one word: wait. Wait for the 60-day negotiation to officially start, wait for the details of the Hormuz clause to be finalized, wait to see how smoothly the stranded 700 ships can sail.

Jumping in now, either you get slapped in the face by the news, or you get targeted for liquidation.

Do you think Iran's foreign minister might send some signal this weekend? I’ve already lowered my positions to the minimum for now.

Speaking of how geopolitical changes affect the crypto circle, the implementation of the US-Iran memorandum and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz mean a phased easing of global trade settlement pressure, and short-term dollar liquidity won't tighten because of this,

This is actually a positive for institutional allocations of $BTC and $ETH — some institutions' IBIT is still experiencing net inflows.

The key now is whether there will be a substantial breakthrough in weekend negotiations; if they collapse, risk-averse funds might withdraw from the crypto space faster than expected, and low leverage waiting is the safest posture in this wave.