Bookmaker's initial abnormal marking: $BTC 恐贪 only 23, but the long contract ratio has already reached 64%, it's not a consistent bearish outlook, but rather panic sentiment with some leverage still betting on a rebound.

The first signal looks at $BTC options expiration.
This time, with $13B options expiring, the news suggests bears are dominant.
At the same time, $BTC OI is at $6.28B, taker ratio 1.26, indicating active buying is still pushing up, but the position structure is leaning bullish.
The failure condition is simple: if before and after expiration, OI significantly decreases, and the long-short ratio falls back, while the price does not break below around 63989, then the "bull squeeze risk" weakens.
The second signal looks at capital rotation.
David Bailey mentioned that since May 14, $BTC ETF has seen about $4B outflows, and funds are shifting towards AI infrastructure.
This is not just a macro judgment; on the order book, it corresponds to: low-level panic but bullish crowding, indicating that when spot volume is insufficient, contracts will first bear the volatility.
Failure condition: ETF outflows stop and turn into net inflows, and $BTC positive funding rate does not continue to rise, then the capital pressure eases.
The third signal looks at the miner cost line.
JPMorgan said that after $BTC falls below production costs, the economic viability of mining worsens.
Such news does not immediately cause a rally, but rather acts as a stress test: if the price continues to stay near the cost line, miners, leveraged positions, and long contracts will be collectively tested for market patience.
Currently, more attention should be paid not to emotional slogans, but whether $BTC positive rate can decrease, and whether the 64% long ratio will be forced to retreat.
#Contract order book
Assisted by Claude Fable in organizing contract data, for informational reference only, please verify independently.