Bitcoin 64700-65200 rebound is just a pause, Ethereum 1770-1800 short target 1650——Deep analysis of the morning strategy on June 18th

At dawn, Bitcoin perfectly closed the position after a 1300+ point profit at 66400, currently oscillating around 64000-65000, with the daily Bollinger Bands continuing to converge, and the 65500 level becoming a key dividing line between bulls and bears. Combining macro factors such as the Fed’s June rate cut expectations heating up and ETF funds continuing to flow out, the morning rebound pause strategy logic is clear, with targets directly pointing to 63000 and 1650.

一、凌晨崆丹回顾：思路决定出路，跟上的朋友爽爽吃肉

Yesterday morning, we decisively positioned at 66400 for the pause, and the subsequent market perfectly followed a downward trend, with the lowest touch near 63900, comfortably capturing over 1300 points and exiting the position. This is not luck, but a precise grasp of the market structure——it’s not that the market is hard to trade, but whether you can do well in this wave.

Friends who followed, did you enjoy the meat this time?

二、当前盘面结构：震荡洗盘信号明确，多头追高意愿不足

日线级别：布林带收敛，65500成多空分水岭

From the daily chart, Bollinger Bands continue to converge, with the midline at 65500 forming a crucial intra-day dividing line between bulls and bears. Only if it stabilizes above can we see room for continued rebound; otherwise, a break below will keep testing the lower support. The overall daily pattern shows a rise and fall, with the upper shadow clearly under pressure, indicating that bulls’ willingness to chase high is seriously lacking, a typical sign of consolidation and shakeout.

一小时级别：震荡下行，反弹无量

On the hourly chart, Bollinger Bands are slightly opening downward, with a series of small bearish candles, and rebound volume is weak, indicating that bulls’ momentum is weak. Each small rebound is quickly suppressed by bears, market lacks effective buying support, and the bearish dominance remains unchanged.

三、宏观面支撑：美联储6月降息预期+ETF资金流出，空头逻辑清晰

1. 美联储6月降息预期升温，但市场已提前定价

Latest data shows the US employment market continues to cool, with the market rapidly raising the probability of a June 2026 rate cut from 5% to 99%. Goldman Sachs previously predicted a 25 basis point cut in June 2026. However, the rate cut expectation has been fully priced in, and actual implementation might trigger profit-taking.

2. ETF资金持续流出，机构信心动摇

Since mid-May, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced continuous outflows, losing a total of 1.55 billion USD, with BlackRock’s IBIT outflow reaching 448 million USD in a single day. The withdrawal of institutional funds directly reflects a cooling risk appetite, which aligns with the current weak rebound performance.

3. 比特币在67000-75000美元区间持续盘整

Bitcoin remains in a narrow consolidation zone between 67,000 and 75,000 USD, with ETF inflows being absorbed by continuous supply, lacking decisive breakout momentum. Until macro sentiment shows a clear shift, this "top-down, bottom-up" pattern is likely to persist.

四、早间操作策略：反弹即崆，目标明确

Bitcoin (BTC)

• 做空区间： 64700-65200

• 目标位： 63000附近

• 止损参考： 65800上方

逻辑：日线中轨65500承压，一小时级别反弹无量，结合宏观面ETF资金流出和降息预期已充分定价，反弹至64700-65200区间是理想的崆丹布局点。若有效跌破64000，下方空间将进一步打开，63000一线支撑将面临考验。

以太（ETH）

• 做空区间： 1770-1800

• 目标位： 1650附近

• 止损参考： 1830上方

逻辑：以太坊走势相对大饼更弱，ETH/BTC交易对持续承压。1770-1800区间是前期多次测试的阻力位，反弹至此崆丹，目标直指1650心理关口。若大饼下破63000，以太大概率联动下探1600下方。

五、风险提示与仓位管理

1. 严格止损： 任何策略都有失效的可能，65800（大饼）和1830（以太）是多空分界的关键位置，一旦站上需果断离场。

2. 仓位控制： 建议单次操作仓位不超过总资金的20%，避免重仓扛单。

3. 关注消息面： 晚间若出现美联储官员讲话或ETF资金流向突变，需及时调整策略。

结语： 市场从不缺机会，缺的是发现机会的眼睛和执行策略的纪律。凌晨66400崆丹已经证明，思路对了，莹粒就是如此简单。早间反弹即崆，跟上的朋友，继续爽爽吃肉！

#我的Gate交易时刻 $BTC