Trump suddenly "softens his attitude"? Polymarket is betting crazy!

Recent global most exciting drama, not Korean drama, nor American drama.
It's the United States and Iran.
Especially Donald Trump recently said:
"Negotiations are progressing smoothly."
This directly sent market sentiment soaring.
After all, what have US-Iran relations been like over the past years?
Like two exes blocking each other a hundred times.
Arguing every day,
but never truly broken off.
Now suddenly starting "active communication," even rumors that the US is softening its stance on Iran's partial enrichment of uranium.
The market instantly imagines:
The Strait of Hormuz stabilizes;
oil prices fall;
global risks ease;
world peace bull market begins.
So the hottest question on Polymarket appears:
"Will a nuclear deal be reached before the end of May?"
Many are already betting heavily on YES.
The reason is simple:
Trump now needs diplomatic achievements.
After all, the US presidential election pressure is getting closer.
If they can achieve a "major diplomatic breakthrough," it will definitely be a plus.
But the problem is:
International politics are never like posting on social media.
Not just a sentence of "relations easing" can lead to a big ending.
The real difficulty lies in the details.
How to regulate uranium enrichment?
How to lift sanctions?
Who makes the first concession?
Who bears the responsibility?
Each of these questions could be a three-season TV drama on its own.
So I personally lean more towards:
In the short term, continue to release positive signals,
but truly reaching a comprehensive agreement before the end of May is still very difficult.
Because what do both sides resemble now?
Like a rekindling phase of a relationship, testing each other again.
Chatting is fine;
having meals is fine;
re-registering—let's see.
And the funniest part of the market is:
As soon as the atmosphere eases,
capital immediately starts celebrating in advance.
Yesterday shouting:
"Middle East war!"
Today it has turned into:
"Global assets surge!"
The biggest feature of financial markets is:
Always reaching a climax first. #Polymarket每日热点