Over the weekend, Bitcoin fell roughly 4.5% amid geopolitical tensions, reaching a one-month low of $74,289 before recovering. On Monday, the leading cryptocurrency surged another 1.6%, jumping back above $77,000.
Amid this performance, Ali Martinez outlined two crucial price levels that will determine whether BTC “launches into its next major expansion phase, or if it extends its current value reset to offer a premier buying opportunity.”
The analyst explained that Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase since the February crash, moving within a channel throughout this structural reset, allowing the market to build liquidity “before its next definitive move.”
Notably, BTC is near the upper boundary of its channel following a recent rejection at the crucial $82,500 resistance. Martinez noted that buyer conviction has been aggressively scaling up as the price tests this level, with derivatives traders heavily positioning for a breakout, and funding rates recently hitting 0.4%, the highest level in over two months.
He previously explained that when funding rates climb this high, it signals that the derivatives market is “completely dominated by aggressive buyers,” and “traders are willing to pay a hefty premium just to maintain their long positions” as the predominant market bias remains significantly tilted toward an upcoming expansion.
Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that some of the largest whales have been using this tight range to “rebalance their portfolios,” redistributing over 18,447 Bitcoin, worth roughly $1.42 billion.
“This supply consolidation has placed BTC between resistance at $78,258 and support at $75,733,” he stated. Therefore, reclaiming this resistance could trigger a rally to $84,569, while losing the key support could send Bitcoin to $66,898.
BTC’s crucial levels sit at $75,733 and $78,258. Source: Ali Charts on X## More Pain To Come?
Other market observers also highlighted the $75,000 and $78,000 as the crucial levels in the short and mid-term. Daan Crypto trades emphasized that the Bitcoin bull market support band is currently between these levels.
As BTC has failed to hold the upper boundary of this band as support for two consecutive weeks, Daan affirmed that bulls “need to keep holding (…) to keep this short/mid timeframe momentum in their favor.”
He previously warned that falling below the $75,000-$76,000 area and weekly closes below it would suggest that the April-May recovery rally was “just a big deviation/dead cat bounce.”
Meanwhile, Merlijn The Trader noted that Bitcoin has been rejected from the 200-Day Moving Average (MA). According to the post, this is the same level that capped the 2022 bull trap, which led to a 40% correction from that area.
Like the other analysts, he affirmed that losing the $75,000–76,000 zone would accelerate the move to new lows, with an initial target of $67,000, where a CME Gap is located. He also pointed out that BTC’s tops tend to end the same way: three bumps on the 21-week SMA followed by the market lows
2つの重要なレベルが次の大きな動きを決定する
ビットコイン（BTC）が最近の75,000ドルのサポートラインを下回った後、回復する中で、市場の観察者の中には、次の主要な動きの方向性を決定する重要なレベルを示す見方も出てきている。
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Bitcoin Between Two Crucial Levels
Over the weekend, Bitcoin fell roughly 4.5% amid geopolitical tensions, reaching a one-month low of $74,289 before recovering. On Monday, the leading cryptocurrency surged another 1.6%, jumping back above $77,000.
Amid this performance, Ali Martinez outlined two crucial price levels that will determine whether BTC “launches into its next major expansion phase, or if it extends its current value reset to offer a premier buying opportunity.”
The analyst explained that Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase since the February crash, moving within a channel throughout this structural reset, allowing the market to build liquidity “before its next definitive move.”
Notably, BTC is near the upper boundary of its channel following a recent rejection at the crucial $82,500 resistance. Martinez noted that buyer conviction has been aggressively scaling up as the price tests this level, with derivatives traders heavily positioning for a breakout, and funding rates recently hitting 0.4%, the highest level in over two months.
He previously explained that when funding rates climb this high, it signals that the derivatives market is “completely dominated by aggressive buyers,” and “traders are willing to pay a hefty premium just to maintain their long positions” as the predominant market bias remains significantly tilted toward an upcoming expansion.
Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that some of the largest whales have been using this tight range to “rebalance their portfolios,” redistributing over 18,447 Bitcoin, worth roughly $1.42 billion.
“This supply consolidation has placed BTC between resistance at $78,258 and support at $75,733,” he stated. Therefore, reclaiming this resistance could trigger a rally to $84,569, while losing the key support could send Bitcoin to $66,898.
BTC’s crucial levels sit at $75,733 and $78,258. Source: Ali Charts on X## More Pain To Come?
Other market observers also highlighted the $75,000 and $78,000 as the crucial levels in the short and mid-term. Daan Crypto trades emphasized that the Bitcoin bull market support band is currently between these levels.
As BTC has failed to hold the upper boundary of this band as support for two consecutive weeks, Daan affirmed that bulls “need to keep holding (…) to keep this short/mid timeframe momentum in their favor.”
He previously warned that falling below the $75,000-$76,000 area and weekly closes below it would suggest that the April-May recovery rally was “just a big deviation/dead cat bounce.”
Meanwhile, Merlijn The Trader noted that Bitcoin has been rejected from the 200-Day Moving Average (MA). According to the post, this is the same level that capped the 2022 bull trap, which led to a 40% correction from that area.
Like the other analysts, he affirmed that losing the $75,000–76,000 zone would accelerate the move to new lows, with an initial target of $67,000, where a CME Gap is located. He also pointed out that BTC’s tops tend to end the same way: three bumps on the 21-week SMA followed by the market lows
関連読書
トレーダーは、2021年に69,000ドルのサイクルピークに達した後、ビットコインは調整の間に3回、21週移動平均線を再テストし、その後弱気市場の底に到達したと観察した。
今回は、BTCはこの重要な指標を2回再テストしており、歴史が繰り返せば、数ヶ月以内に「本当の底」、つまり約50,000ドル付近へのもう一段の下落が起こる可能性を示唆している。