【轉】貝萊德（BlackRock）似乎仍在積極拋售 ETF 持倉，與此同時，鏈上比特幣交易數據持續顯示有大量 BTC 流向交易所。

在我看來，這表明市場供應正以受控方式釋放，可能採用了 TWAP（時間加權平均價格）式的拋售策略。當前市場結構令人擔憂的一點在於，儘管存在這種拋售壓力，我們尚未看到價格出現大幅下跌。但這並不意味著風險已消除，可能僅僅意味著目前的壓力暫時被市場消化了。

我認為，一旦做市商允許波動率放大，且散戶倉位過度偏向多頭，市場可能會迎來更劇烈的行情波動。目前，許多市場參與者似乎試圖在每次回調時買入，反覆嘗試「接飛刀」卻屢屢受挫，因為市場仍在持續走弱。

對於比特幣整體市場結構，我仍持謹慎和看跌態度。目前的交易區間正是比特幣在 2024 年大部分時間裡橫盤震盪的區域。回顧當時，BTC 曾在大約 12 小時內從 59,000 美元左右急跌至 49,000 美元。

類似的情況仍有可能重演：即經歷長時間的橫盤派發後，一旦多頭倉位過於擁擠且市場參與者對下行加速缺乏準備，便引發劇烈的拋售。

如果市場開始顯現出更明確的看漲信號，我會重新評估市場結構，並尋找機會在更理想的點位增加空頭倉位。然而，就現階段而言，我並未看到任何強有力的理由預期市場會出現大幅上漲。

因此，在情況發生變化之前，我繼續認為該市場風險較高且看跌。

BlackRock appears to remain active on the ETF selling side, while on chain Bitcoin transaction data continues to show significant BTC flows moving toward exchanges.

In my view, this suggests that supply is being distributed into the market in a controlled manner, potentially through TWAP style selling. What makes the current structure concerning is that despite this selling pressure, we have not yet seen a significant downside move. That does not mean the risk is gone it may simply mean that the pressure is being absorbed for now.

The larger move, in my opinion, could come once market makers allow volatility to expand and retail positioning becomes overly exposed to longs. At the moment, many market participants appear to be trying to buy every dip, repeatedly attempting to “catch a falling knife” and failing as the market continues to weaken.

I remain cautious and negative on the broader Bitcoin market structure. We are currently trading in a zone where Bitcoin spent almost an entire year moving sideways in 2024. During that period, BTC eventually dropped from around $59,000 to $49,000 within approximately 12 hours.

A similar scenario remains possible: extended sideways distribution, followed by a sharp and aggressive sell off once long positioning becomes too crowded and market participants are no longer prepared for downside acceleration.

If the market starts to show clearer bullish signals, I will reassess the structure and look for new opportunities to increase my short positions at more attractive levels. However, at this stage, I currently see no strong reason to expect a significant upside move.

For that reason, I continue to view the market as high risk and bearish until proven otherwise.