$BTC The Federal Reserve's tightening has been further upgraded, and this week's PCE is the short-term market dividing line

Here are a few personal opinions:
1. The market is now worried about the Fed raising interest rates again, and the key anchor point is this week's core PCE, which the Fed values most for inflation data.
2. Three possible outcomes corresponding to the market:
· PCE exceeds expectations and rises: probability of rate hikes soars, US bonds, dollar rise, US stocks growth, gold, and cryptocurrencies all come under pressure;
Data meets expectations: market fluctuates narrowly, high interest rates are hard to loosen, and the market is unlikely to have a big rebound;
Data clearly cools down: short-term benefits for growth and gold, but only a short-term rebound, the big rate cut fantasy is gone.
3. Core viewpoints:
This round of inflation is sticky; even if the data falls this time, the Fed will not loosen easily, and high interest rates will be maintained for a long time; limited room for rate hikes, and the US's huge debt cannot sustain continued large rate increases.
4. Operation ideas (for reference only): Do not heavily bet on directions before the data; avoid overvalued assets when negative news lands; reduce positions on rebounds when positive news occurs, and do not long-term bullish on easing market.