The new Federal Reserve Chair Powell not only kept interest rates unchanged at his first FOMC meeting but also directly announced the abandonment of forward guidance.

The market fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike before the end of the year, but Bitcoin initially fell over 1% in the short term before rebounding above $66,000—this is not simply a case of negative news being fully priced in, but rather the market losing a familiar pricing anchor.
Powell explicitly stated that “no forward guidance can be provided on the next steps,” and plans to conduct a comprehensive review of communication methods by the end of the year, including the dot plot and press conferences.
The dot plot shows nine officials expect rate hikes by 2026, with only one expecting a cut, but Powell himself did not submit a forecast.
This “de-guidance” forces the market to interpret economic data on its own, rather than relying on central bank hints.
For the crypto market, traders have been accustomed to a simple logic over the past two years: “weak data → rate cut expectations → risk assets rise.”
Now Powell has cut off this transmission chain, meaning Bitcoin’s reaction to CPI, non-farm payrolls, and other data will become more nonlinear.
Institutional funds may prefer to wait for actual interest rate changes rather than betting on expectations, which could slow ETF inflows.
The risk is: without central bank expectation management, market volatility may increase.
If inflation data exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will quickly reinforce themselves, and Powell will not step in to soothe the market.
Whether Bitcoin’s support around $64,000 is solid depends on whether the market can price itself without the “Fed put options.”
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