The Federal Reserve meeting minutes released a more dangerous signal than pausing rate cuts: officials are beginning to seriously discuss raising interest rates.

The April meeting vote was 8 to 4, with 3 directly supporting the removal of easing bias, and "many" participants hoping to delete easing language from the statement. The last meeting minutes of Powell showed that if inflation remains above 2%, further tightening would be appropriate. New Chair Wosbourn will be sworn in this Friday, and hawkish expectations for the June meeting are heating up.
What does this mean for the crypto market? One of the core supports for crypto liquidity in 2025 is the "rate peak" narrative. Once rate hikes return to the discussion table, rising real US dollar interest rates will drain risk asset valuations. Bitcoin ETF funds have been flowing out consecutively, and if the macro environment tightens further, institutional allocation willingness may cool down even more.
Counter risk: the market may underestimate the rate hike threshold. The minutes still mention that "several" officials believe rate cuts later this year would be appropriate, and inflation data may not support immediate action. But the shift in direction itself—from "when to cut" to "whether to hike"—has changed the risk pricing framework for funds.
When macro narratives switch, traders should not only look at a single daily candle.
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