2026年5月白银中期研报，供给侧与AI推动下的金弱银强

一、 核心驱动：从金融避险向高科刚需的范式转移
Long-term, silver has been seen as a shadow of gold, but this will be thoroughly broken in 2026. As generative AI enters its first year of physical world applications, the demand for high-performance electronic slurry from computing centers is growing exponentially. Thanks to its unparalleled conductivity, silver has become an indispensable material for chip packaging and server connectors. Meanwhile, the large-scale deployment of HJT heterojunction technology in the photovoltaic industry has caused global energy transition to consume over 40% of silver's total demand. Silver is no longer just the gold of the poor, but a strategic weapon indispensable to high-tech industries.

二、 供给侧黑天鹅：供求天道下的矿产区困局
This round of surge reflects the value law emphasized by Fu Haitang, that is, the fundamental reason for price fluctuations lies in the imbalance of supply and demand. As a top global mining region, Peru has recently faced extreme power shortages and natural gas quota restrictions, causing several large mines to halt production, directly cutting off the global supply chain. The deeper crisis is that global silver inventories have been in a net outflow for six consecutive years; as of May, COMEX inventories have fallen to historically low levels. This extreme supply-demand contradiction triggers market natural law, with physical delivery difficulties causing prices to quickly revert or even surpass their intrinsic value.

三、 盘面现状：确定性逻辑下的机构杠杆博弈
According to trading data, silver is currently in a highly volatile zone. On May 14, spot silver closed at about $87.56, with an intraday high of $89.17. Based on Fu Haitang's trading philosophy, trading should be based on a confirmed fundamental logic, not on pattern prediction. Currently, the gold-silver ratio has rapidly shrunk from the traditional 80:1 to about 40:1, a natural result of fundamental contradictions erupting. Meanwhile, open interest has hit a record high, indicating that the current price, supported by deterministic logic and combined with high leverage funds, has formed a fierce liquidation wave.

四、 交易点位：关键压力位与支撑区间的技术研判
Based on mid-May technical analysis:
1️⃣ Core resistance level: The first resistance is at the psychological threshold of $90.00 and recent wave targets. If broken effectively, the upper target points to $95.00 to $98.40.
2️⃣ Core support level: The first support is at $86.10, with strong buying support in the zone of $83.70 to $84.20.
3️⃣ Bull-bear dividing line: $80.40. As long as the price remains above this line, the medium-term bullish structure remains solid; if broken, caution is needed for a deep pullback to $75.30.

五、 操作建议：顺应天时地利下的趋势性布局
For short-term traders, it is recommended to look for stabilization opportunities around $86.10, avoiding blindly chasing highs at $90.00. As Fu Haitang said, one should dare to increase positions after confirming the fundamental logic, but also stay calm when indicators are overbought. For long-term investors, as long as the supply-demand contradictions in AI infrastructure and energy transition are unresolved, the upward trend of silver will not end. However, given the high volatility of the "devil metal," strictly control positions based on spot supply and demand changes, closely monitor official announcements from South America, and ensure to follow the trend while avoiding shocks from short-term volatility!$XAGUSD ‌#Gate广场五月交易分享