#Gate广场五月交易分享 The Federal Reserve's new chair Waller, Bitcoin drops below 80,000!

When Bitcoin sharply dips below the key psychological threshold of $80,000 amid intense volatility, the inflow of nearly $1.7 billion into ETFs over five consecutive days suddenly halts, with a single-day net outflow of $277.5 million, U.S. inflation data explodes, and rate cut expectations are completely frozen, the Federal Reserve faces the most divided power transition in history—markets are shrouded in panic, pessimists increase, countless people fall into anxiety: Is Bitcoin really out of the game?
The answer lies in data, cycles, macro patterns, and historical laws. Short-term declines are never the annihilation of value but the most brutal and precious reshuffling in the bull market process.

一、三重压力合围：比特币跌破8万，是偶然更是必然
This round of decline is not a sudden black swan but the result of macro policies, capital flows, and market sentiment resonating together, each supported by clear data.
1. Inflation data shock: High interest rates lock liquidity, risk assets collectively under pressure
U.S. April PPI data released, month-on-month increase hits the highest since March 2022, up 6.0% year-on-year, the highest since December 2022. Coupled with previously exceeding expectations CPI data, U.S. inflation rebound has become a fact, directly shattering market expectations of rate cuts.
CME FedWatch tool clearly shows: the probability of a Fed rate cut in June is only 1.4%, “maintaining high interest rates longer” has become market consensus. As a typical risk asset, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity, with a strong dollar and rising financing costs directly suppressing prices, becoming the core trigger for breaking below 80,000.
2. ETF capital reversal: short-term profit-taking by institutions, not long-term exit
On the same day Bitcoin's price fell below 80,000, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF ended five days of net inflows, with a single-day outflow of $277.5 million, the first since May. Fidelity FBTC outflow was $129 million, BlackRock IBIT outflow was $98 million, becoming the main capital outflow.
But this is not institutional bearishness on Bitcoin but typical short-term profit-taking. The nearly $1.7 billion inflow over five days accumulated a large amount of short-term profit, and after touching the key level, funds cashed out profits, which is normal market fluctuation. More noteworthy, Morgan Stanley MSBT contrarily flowed in $7.3 million, never experienced outflows since listing on April 8, with a total holding of 2,920 BTC, assets grew by 557%, demonstrating long-term institutional confidence in Bitcoin.
3. Power transition of the Federal Reserve: most divided vote in history, short-term market volatility
On May 14, the U.S. Senate approved Waller’s appointment as Fed Chair with 54 votes in favor and 45 against; earlier on May 12, the Senate approved his appointment as Fed Board member for a 14-year term. Waller will officially take office after completing White House procedures, succeeding Powell whose term ends on May 15, while Powell remains as a board member. This vote is the most partisan split in Fed history: only one Democratic senator voted in favor alongside the Republican majority, policy stance is clearly torn. Waller’s core stance is anti-inflation, hawkish policy orientation, which will further reinforce market fears of liquidity tightening in the short term, amplifying Bitcoin’s volatility.
4. Market sentiment cools: fear index drops, panic replaces neutrality
Multiple negative factors combined, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index quickly dropped from the previous neutral 47 points to fear 38 points.
Although Bitcoin still rose about 11% in the past 30 days, far above the April average of 17 points, the short-term rapid decline directly shattered market sentiment, amplifying selling pressure.

二、四个核心逻辑，证明比特币长期价值不可逆

Short-term volatility is driven by sentiment and capital, long-term trend by value and cycles.
When we step out of daily fluctuations, the core logic supporting Bitcoin’s upward movement not only remains intact but continues to strengthen.
1. Historical cycle law: 35% retracement, 77% chance of new high within a year
Bitcoin’s maximum retracement from its all-time high of $126,200 exceeded 50%, bottomed below $60,000, and now rebounded above $80,000, with retracement narrowed to 35%.
Network economist Timothy Peterson’s research shows: Bitcoin has experienced 9 instances of recovering from a 50% retracement to 35%, 7 of which have hit new highs within a year, with a success rate of 77%. The last similar cycle appeared at the end of the 2022 bear market, with retracement narrowing to 35% by December 2023, and hitting a new high by March 2024. History does not simply repeat but often echoes, which is an objective law of Bitcoin’s cycle.
2. Supply becomes thoroughly scarce: halving effect solidifies digital gold attributes
The 2024 Bitcoin halving has completed, with block rewards halved from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, annual inflation rate dropped from 3.125% to 1.7%, below most global fiat inflation levels. Absolute scarcity on the supply side is Bitcoin’s core trait distinguishing it from all assets. As mining difficulty increases and new supply decreases, circulating supply continues to tighten, with exchange reserves dropping to 2.21 million BTC, the lowest since December 2017. Chips are concentrated among long-term holders, providing solid support for long-term price appreciation.
3. Institutionalization is irreversible: ETF is just the beginning, compliant allocation becomes trend
The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs marks Bitcoin’s official entry into mainstream institutional portfolios. Despite short-term capital outflows, ETF existence provides convenient, safe channels for pension funds, family offices, mutual funds, and other compliant capital. Morgan Stanley MSBT’s continuous net inflow already proves large financial institutions’ recognition of Bitcoin. As regulatory frameworks improve and market awareness increases, institutional allocation will continue to rise, shifting from “optional” to “standard,” an irreversible historical trend.
4. Valuation system reconstruction: Buffett indicator suggests Bitcoin remains undervalued
Analyst Matthew Sigel, combining Buffett’s indicator (total U.S. stock market value / GDP), points out that Bitcoin’s relative valuation remains low. If Bitcoin recovers to match current stock market valuation levels, target price could reach $160,000. This is not bubble speculation but a normal expectation of asset valuation returning to a reasonable range.
三、未来走势全景推演：短期磨底，中期突破，长期创新高
结合宏观政策、资金流向、周期规律与市场情绪，比特币的未来走势清晰可辨，分为三个阶段：
1. 短期（1-4周）：震荡磨底，夯实7.8万-8.2万支撑区间
Waller’s early hawkish stance, subsequent inflation data, ETF fund sentiment will continue to suppress Bitcoin’s price. But $78,000-$79,500 is a strong support zone, combined with whale accumulation and MSBT continuous inflow, making a sharp decline unlikely.
Forecast: mainly oscillate and bottom out, digest negative news, repair sentiment, repeatedly test the 78,000-82,000 range.
2. 中期（1-3个月）：政策明朗，突破8.2万打开上行空间
As the market adapts to Waller’s policy stance, the Fed’s June FOMC signals, and ETF capital reflows, panic will quickly subside.
Key signals: stabilize above $82,000, fill the $84,000 gap, then challenge the $85,000 key level, opening a new upward channel.
3. 长期（6-12个月）：周期驱动，刷新历史高概率极大
Supply halving, institutional allocation, global monetary system changes, and cycle resonance jointly drive Bitcoin higher. Combining a 77% historical success rate, hitting new highs within a year is highly probable. Bitcoin’s long-term value will not weaken due to short-term declines but will become more prominent through cycle cleansing.