#Gate广场五月交易分享 The Federal Reserve is expected to see inflation heat up in April, with BTC facing the risk of dropping to $70,000

On May 10, Bitcoin may face weaker support when the US releases its inflation report next week, compared to the previous two CPI data releases, increasing the risk of a retreat to $70,000.
The latest Cleveland Fed inflation forecast estimates that the April CPI year-over-year rose to 3.56%, higher than March's 3.3%; the monthly CPI is expected to be 0.45% (below 0.9%), with core CPI at 2.56% YoY and 0.21% MoM (previously 2.6% and 0.2%). The official April CPI report will be released on May 12. This keeps the inflation outlook complex—despite a slowdown in monthly pace and stable core inflation, overall CPI is still expected to accelerate again.
For risk assets, this is not an ideal environment. The strong annual CPI reading may reinforce the Fed's difficulty in quickly cutting interest rates, often suppressing speculative trading like Bitcoin.
However, Bitcoin has previously avoided deeper declines amid hot CPI data. The March CPI report showed overall inflation rising from 2.4% in February to 3.3%, yet BTC price actually increased by over 15%. One reason is that institutional buyers absorbed a volume equivalent to more than 500% of the newly mined Bitcoin supply, with Strategy playing a major role. But this support now appears to have weakened. Strategy has paused its BTC purchases, and its STRC preferred shares continue to trade below the $100 par value. When STRC trades below par, the efficiency of issuing new shares declines, limiting Strategy's ability to raise new capital to buy more Bitcoin.
Analyst Killa said that large investors might start reducing risk exposure before and after the inflation report, citing a cautious pattern similar to the CPI events around 2025. He stated: "The key level to hold is the weekly opening price of $78,600; if broken, the next downside targets are $74,000 to $75,000."
On the technical side, Bitcoin is forming a classic ascending wedge pattern on the daily chart, seen as a bearish reversal. As of Sunday, BTC is rising toward the wedge's apex, around $84,000, where two trendlines converge. A break below this level could trigger a decline toward the measured target of around $70,000. Conversely, a breakout above the apex (coinciding with the 200-day EMA) could completely negate the bearish structure, with the next upside targets in the $90,000 to $95,000 range.