Apakah Jepang menjual obligasi AS untuk intervensi pasar valuta asing? Cadangan obligasi AS Federal Reserve berkurang 8,7 miliar dolar AS memicu spekulasi pasar

The size of U.S. Treasury bonds held in custody by the Federal Reserve decreased for the first time in a month, while at the same time, Japan may have been intervening in the currency market to support the yen. Market observers are debating whether Japan is raising funds to buy yen by selling U.S. Treasuries.

According to data released by the Federal Reserve, as of the week ending May 6, the Fed’s holdings of tradable U.S. Treasury bonds for foreign official institutions and international accounts decreased by $8.7 billion, down to $2.73 trillion. It is estimated that during the same period, Japan’s Ministry of Finance spent about $54.7 billion to buy yen.

As the Fed’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries decline, Japan has bought a large amount of yen, indirectly confirming the possibility that Japan is conducting exchange rate interventions by selling U.S. Treasuries.

Japan is the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries, and supporting a highly liquid currency like the yen usually requires intervention funds in the tens of billions of dollars.

In Japan’s exchange rate intervention mechanism, the Bank of Japan acts as an agent executing the orders of the Ministry of Finance.

If Japan’s U.S. Treasury holdings indeed decrease, it could further push up U.S. Treasury yields. Influenced by the U.S.-Iran war, international oil prices have surged significantly, and markets are also worried that the U.S. fiscal deficit may widen due to the war, with U.S. Treasury yields already on an upward trend.

Rodrigo Catril, senior foreign exchange strategist at National Australia Bank, said: “The change in this account seems to coincide with the timing of the Ministry of Finance instructing the Bank of Japan to intervene.”

He pointed out that historical experience shows such interventions are usually sporadic and occasional, but “if this becomes a long-term norm, it could pose problems for the U.S. Treasury market.”

According to media reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen plans to visit Japan next Monday, where she is expected to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, with exchange rate issues likely to be one of the main topics.

Yellen stated last November that her role is to be the U.S. “chief bond salesman,” and U.S. Treasury yields are an important indicator of her effectiveness.

Yellen reiterated in November that her role is to be the U.S. “chief bond salesman,” and U.S. Treasury yields are an important measure of her work’s success.

Yuxuan Tang, head of Asia rates and FX strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank Hong Kong, said that the Bank of Japan can utilize foreign exchange reserves stored at the New York Fed, enabling Japanese authorities to “operate during U.S. trading hours, when U.S. Treasury market liquidity is at its peak.”

“This approach helps minimize market disruptions. For the same reason, they prefer to use short-term government bonds rather than long-term bonds.”

Shusuke Yamada, FX and interest rate strategist at Bank of America in Tokyo, noted in a report that during past Japanese exchange rate interventions, the cash portion of Japan’s foreign exchange reserves did not show significant declines.

“If this time is the same, it means the supply and demand in the related bond markets could deteriorate by about $70 billion, and the market generally believes these bonds are mainly U.S. Treasuries,” Yamada said.

（Source: Caixin）