The Federal Reserve's script for 2026 has changed again?

Latest interest rate futures data shows the market is slightly lowering expectations for rate hikes in 2026
🔍 Core intelligence breakdown:
1️⃣
Expectations cooling down: US interest rate futures have recently slightly retreated from betting on rate hikes in 2026. Although inflation data remains sticky (core PCE expected at 2.7%), the market is beginning to digest the expectation of “no longer worsening.”
2️⃣
Maintaining high levels: Currently, at the June 17 FOMC meeting, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% remains as high as 93.9%. While rate hike expectations have decreased, “Higher for Longer” remains the main theme.
3️⃣
Whale game: This macro-level “fine-tuning” is a matter of life and death for the high-leverage whales we monitor. The cooling of rate hike expectations means reduced pressure on risk assets (BTC/ETH).
What rate hike expectations will decrease? Because the market is betting on rebalancing “geopolitical risks” and “economic recession.”
For that anti-whale holding a short position of $49 million in ETH, this is definitely not good news.
Decreased probability of rate hikes = slowing of liquidity tightening = increased space for risk assets to rebound.
If BTC stabilizes at 80,000, these shorts are the pure “fuel.”
Under the pressure of the change of Federal Reserve Chair (Kevin Warsh era begins) and the Trump administration, the monetary policy in 2026 has become a tug-of-war between politics and economics.
Do you believe the Fed can suppress inflation, or do you believe Qin Shi Huang?
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