Market Viewpoints

Breakthrough above 81 approaching 83-84, next step plan
These days, due to going out, updates have decreased. But the market is operating according to previous viewpoints
First, before 81, it was repeatedly emphasized that it would at least reach 81, and the reason is quite simple: after touching the lower boundary of the CME gap, there is no reason not to fill it. By analyzing and summarizing the chart since BTC1! has been traded on CME, this conclusion can be reached
Before touching 81, it was also mentioned that if 81 is touched and not rejected immediately, it will test the resistance zone of 83-84. I do not short
Currently, the market is running according to the most favorable bullish script, touching 82800 (close to 83)
Next outlook
First, it can be seen that above 81, most altcoins followed the rise yesterday and today. Many coins that have been under pressure, such as $SOL $SUI , have finally risen. This gives a feeling of “one last dance.”
There is also a small probability that “rotation has just begun.”
The launch of altcoins is about a 70:30 chance of being the last dance or just the beginning
The key is the reaction in the 83-84 zone. If Bitcoin can break through 84 without resistance, the risk appetite for altcoins will continue to return. SOL’s rebound will go to around 117, ETH around 2900
I also mentioned that the probability of the last dance is higher, meaning Bitcoin starting to fall after peaking in the 83-84 range is more likely, which also aligns with the bear market theme
If it breaks through the 83-84 zone, Bitcoin will officially enter (accept) the previous consolidation zone, i.e., the 84-97 range. This means the real resistance above is around 97
If the breakout fails, a reasonable retracement zone is around 74
Success/failure of breakout depends on whether the 4H level can continuously hold above 84; if yes, it indicates a successful breakout.
Another question from a family member: does breaking above 84 mean the bear market is ending early?
I believe that breaking above 84 means the rebound level is expanding, but it does not necessarily mean the bear market is over; trading still carries risks.
On the other hand, since Trump took office, the performance of altcoins seems to be in a long-term bear market, diverging from Bitcoin. Therefore, family members mainly trading altcoins assume they are in a long-term bear market to trade, which is also fine (even if Bitcoin rises)
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