tonight's non-farm payroll, possibly more dangerous than the Middle East situation

Many people are still frantically scrolling through Middle East news.
But those who truly understand the market are now watching the U.S. Department of Labor.
Because tonight's non-farm data could determine the entire May market trend.
Why is this so important?
Because the most core issue in the market right now is:
When will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?
If employment remains strong, the Fed will have reason to keep interest rates high.
And high interest rates are not friendly to BTC.
Adding to that, the sudden escalation of the US-Iran situation further reduces market risk appetite, so it’s not surprising that BTC fell below $80,000 last night.
But the key point is coming.
The market has actually already priced in some negative factors in advance.
In other words, as long as tonight’s non-farm data isn’t particularly out of line, risk assets might actually see a “negative news landing and rebound.”
This is the most classic pattern on Wall Street.
Many people always think that the worse the news, the more the market falls.
In fact, often the real decline happens during the expectation phase, not the result phase.
Currently, although US-Iran tensions are escalating, both sides are still holding back.
Because everyone knows that once the Hormuz Strait remains turbulent for a long time, the global energy market will go out of control.
So in the short term, it’s more likely to be emotional shocks rather than full-scale war.
What truly determines whether BTC can retake $80,000 is liquidity.
As long as the market re-believes in rate cuts, BTC still has a chance.
The most unfortunate right now are actually high-leverage traders.
Watching war news during the day, waiting for non-farm data at night, and then waiting for liquidation notices in the early morning.
This batch of investors has almost trained their mental resilience to special forces level. #Gate广场五月交易分享