2026.10.10 Daily Crypto Market News Analysis
The daily net flow of Bitcoin funds turned positive, an improvement worth watching today, but it is still insufficient to show that capital has fully returned. U.S. spot ETFs are products that hold the corresponding crypto assets and allow investors to buy and sell fund shares through securities accounts. On October 9, Bitcoin products saw net inflows of $21.1 million, while Ethereum products still recorded net outflows of $56.1 million, for a combined net outflow of $35 million. Compared with combined outflows of approximately $317 million on the previous trading day, the pressure has eased significantly; however, from October 5 to 9, the two types of products recorded cumulative outflows of approximately $679 million and $542 million, respectively. I am more inclined to view this as a slowdown in outflows and asset differentiation. Whether sustained inflows are forming will need to be verified through consecutive trading days next week. On-chain data has also yet to provide a supporting signal of expanding demand. In the latest daily data series, the circulating supply of USD-pegged stablecoins was approximately $310.8 billion, down approximately 0.26% from seven days earlier; the trading volume on decentralized exchanges over the past seven days was approximately $57.9 billion, down approximately 17.5% from the preceding seven-day period; and the dollar value of assets locked in protocols was approximately $91.9 billion, down approximately 3.1% over seven days. Trading activity has cooled more noticeably than the stablecoin supply has contracted, indicating that existing funds still have relatively weak trading willingness. The daily data series here will be updated, and the valuation of locked assets is also affected by token prices, so these changes cannot all be counted as users withdrawing funds; the outstanding stablecoin supply also does not equal capital that has already been used to buy crypto. An order-book study released today provides another perspective: among the major centralized exchanges compared in the study, the order-book depth near the current prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum has exceeded levels seen during last year's flash crash, while dollar depth for the altcoin sample continues to weaken. Order-book depth represents how much buying and selling liquidity can absorb large trades, and is a different metric from ETF net inflows and actual trading volume. This means that trading conditions for major tokens can improve while new demand across the market remains insufficient; it cannot be inferred from this that all coins are safer. Whether a macro shock escalates into severe volatility also depends on whether orders are withdrawn and whether leverage is concentrated when the shock occurs. On the security front, a publicly disclosed vulnerability in the XRP Ledger payment engine could bypass counter checks and create spendable XRP in specially crafted transactions, but this is a reproduced attack capability and should not be described as already resulting in excess issuance. The fix took effect with the release of server software 3.4.1 on September 25, and officials said they found no evidence that any public network had been exploited. The patching rule for another batch-transaction vulnerability was enabled on October 9; the two timelines must not be conflated. For node operators, upgrading and confirming the running version is more useful than being led by headlines about XRP being “created out of thin air”; for holders, there is currently no evidence supporting treating the potential vulnerability amount as an actual loss. Regulatory changes likewise require distinguishing direction from implementation. On October 9, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed explicitly including event contracts involving sports, politics, weather, and other events under the derivatives definition of “swap,” and requested public comment. This concerns the regulatory boundaries of prediction markets and could affect platforms’ compliance arrangements, but it is not yet a final rule and does not mean the legal disputes have ended. I will continue to monitor the final text and related judicial developments. For now, what is more likely to change the market’s assessment is whether funds can continue to flow in next week, whether Ethereum outflows stop, and whether on-chain trading volume can catch up; regulatory discussions and security patches are meaningful, but they cannot replace actual demand.
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