最近有点意思的现象，人民币汇率这波走势真的值得关注。From last year to this year, the performance of the US dollar against the RMB has shown a clear shift, and the previous three-year depreciation trend seems to be reversing.
说起来，2025年人民币的表现还是挺有韧性的。Speaking of which, the RMB's performance in 2025 remains quite resilient. 上半年确实被关税政策和美元走强压得有点喘不上气，离岸人民币一度跌破7.4，甚至创下2015年以来的新纪录。In the first half of the year, it was indeed pressured by tariff policies and a strengthening dollar, with offshore RMB once falling below 7.4, even hitting a new low since 2015. 但进入下半年后，随着中美关系缓和、美元指数转弱，人民币开始反弹。But in the second half, as China-US relations eased and the dollar index weakened, the RMB began to rebound. 到11月中旬，美元对人民币已经跌到7.08以下，一度触及7.0765，这是近一年来的最强表现。By mid-November, USD to RMB had fallen below 7.08, reaching as low as 7.0765, the strongest in nearly a year.
从更长的时间维度看，这五年的汇率周期还是挺有规律的。Looking at a longer time frame, the exchange rate cycle over these five years has been quite regular. 2020年疫情期间人民币强势升值，2021年维持相对强势，但2022年美联储激进加息打破了这个局面，人民币贬值幅度创近年新高。During the pandemic in 2020, RMB appreciated strongly; in 2021, it remained relatively strong, but in 2022, aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve broke this pattern, leading to the largest depreciation in recent years. 2023到2024年虽然美元有所回落，但人民币始终维持在7以上。From 2023 to 2024, although the dollar retreated somewhat, the RMB remained above 7. Now it looks like this depreciation cycle might really be coming to an end.
市场上的大机构对人民币后续走势普遍看好。Major institutions in the market generally remain optimistic about the RMB's future trend. 德意志银行预测美元对人民币会进一步升至7.0，甚至到2026年底可能跌到6.7。Deutsche Bank predicts USD to RMB will further rise to 7.0, and possibly fall to 6.7 by the end of 2026. 摩根士丹利也认为人民币会温和升值，美元指数可能回到89左右。Morgan Stanley also expects a moderate appreciation of the RMB, with the dollar index possibly returning to around 89. 高盛更激进一些，直接把12个月的预期从7.35上调到7.0，理由是人民币实际有效汇率被低估了12%，对美元更是低估15%。Goldman Sachs is more aggressive, raising the 12-month forecast from 7.35 to 7.0, citing that the real effective exchange rate of the RMB is undervalued by 12%, and by 15% against the dollar.
这背后的逻辑其实很清楚。一是中国出口韧性还在，二是外资开始重新配置人民币资产，三是美元结构性偏弱的格局可能维持。The logic behind this is quite clear. First, China’s export resilience remains; second, foreign capital is beginning to reallocate RMB assets; third, the structural weakness of the dollar may persist. 不过要真正判断汇率走向，还是要盯紧几个关键变量：美联储的降息节奏、中美贸易谈判进展、人民银行的政策信号，以及中国本身的经济数据。However, to truly judge the trend of the exchange rate, several key variables must be closely watched: the Fed’s rate cut pace, progress in China-US trade negotiations, the People's Bank of China’s policy signals, and China’s economic data.
从央行政策看，宽松的货币政策一般会对人民币构成压力，但如果配合强有力的财政刺激能让经济企稳，长期还是有利的。From the central bank’s policies, loose monetary policy generally puts pressure on the RMB, but if combined with strong fiscal stimulus to stabilize the economy, it can be beneficial in the long run. 美联储的降息周期才刚开始，如果真的加速降息，美元会继续走弱，这对人民币有利。The Fed’s rate cut cycle has just begun; if it accelerates, the dollar will continue to weaken, which is favorable for the RMB. 中美贸易关系的走向也很关键，如果继续缓和，人民币会获得支撑；如果又出现紧张，贬值压力会回来。The direction of China-US trade relations is also crucial; continued easing will support the RMB, while renewed tensions will bring depreciation pressure.
从美元对人民币汇率预测的角度，接下来的重点是看这些因素如何演变。From the perspective of USD to RMB exchange rate forecasts, the key is how these factors evolve. 短期内人民币可能维持偏强态势，但快速升破7.0以下的概率不算高。In the short term, the RMB may remain relatively strong, but the probability of quickly breaking below 7.0 is not high. 中长期来看，如果上面这些支撑因素持续存在，人民币确实有机会启动新一轮升值周期。这次转折点可能真的来了，值得持续观察。In the medium to long term, if these supporting factors persist, the RMB indeed has a chance to start a new appreciation cycle. This turning point may have truly arrived, and it’s worth ongoing observation.
最近有点意思的现象，人民币汇率这波走势真的值得关注。From last year to this year, the performance of the US dollar against the RMB has shown a clear shift, and the previous three-year depreciation trend seems to be reversing.
说起来，2025年人民币的表现还是挺有韧性的。Speaking of which, the RMB's performance in 2025 remains quite resilient. 上半年确实被关税政策和美元走强压得有点喘不上气，离岸人民币一度跌破7.4，甚至创下2015年以来的新纪录。In the first half of the year, it was indeed pressured by tariff policies and a strengthening dollar, with offshore RMB once falling below 7.4, even hitting a new low since 2015. 但进入下半年后，随着中美关系缓和、美元指数转弱，人民币开始反弹。But in the second half, as China-US relations eased and the dollar index weakened, the RMB began to rebound. 到11月中旬，美元对人民币已经跌到7.08以下，一度触及7.0765，这是近一年来的最强表现。By mid-November, USD to RMB had fallen below 7.08, reaching as low as 7.0765, the strongest in nearly a year.
从更长的时间维度看，这五年的汇率周期还是挺有规律的。Looking at a longer time frame, the exchange rate cycle over these five years has been quite regular. 2020年疫情期间人民币强势升值，2021年维持相对强势，但2022年美联储激进加息打破了这个局面，人民币贬值幅度创近年新高。During the pandemic in 2020, RMB appreciated strongly; in 2021, it remained relatively strong, but in 2022, aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve broke this pattern, leading to the largest depreciation in recent years. 2023到2024年虽然美元有所回落，但人民币始终维持在7以上。From 2023 to 2024, although the dollar retreated somewhat, the RMB remained above 7. Now it looks like this depreciation cycle might really be coming to an end.
市场上的大机构对人民币后续走势普遍看好。Major institutions in the market generally remain optimistic about the RMB's future trend. 德意志银行预测美元对人民币会进一步升至7.0，甚至到2026年底可能跌到6.7。Deutsche Bank predicts USD to RMB will further rise to 7.0, and possibly fall to 6.7 by the end of 2026. 摩根士丹利也认为人民币会温和升值，美元指数可能回到89左右。Morgan Stanley also expects a moderate appreciation of the RMB, with the dollar index possibly returning to around 89. 高盛更激进一些，直接把12个月的预期从7.35上调到7.0，理由是人民币实际有效汇率被低估了12%，对美元更是低估15%。Goldman Sachs is more aggressive, raising the 12-month forecast from 7.35 to 7.0, citing that the real effective exchange rate of the RMB is undervalued by 12%, and by 15% against the dollar.
这背后的逻辑其实很清楚。一是中国出口韧性还在，二是外资开始重新配置人民币资产，三是美元结构性偏弱的格局可能维持。The logic behind this is quite clear. First, China’s export resilience remains; second, foreign capital is beginning to reallocate RMB assets; third, the structural weakness of the dollar may persist. 不过要真正判断汇率走向，还是要盯紧几个关键变量：美联储的降息节奏、中美贸易谈判进展、人民银行的政策信号，以及中国本身的经济数据。However, to truly judge the trend of the exchange rate, several key variables must be closely watched: the Fed’s rate cut pace, progress in China-US trade negotiations, the People's Bank of China’s policy signals, and China’s economic data.
从央行政策看，宽松的货币政策一般会对人民币构成压力，但如果配合强有力的财政刺激能让经济企稳，长期还是有利的。From the central bank’s policies, loose monetary policy generally puts pressure on the RMB, but if combined with strong fiscal stimulus to stabilize the economy, it can be beneficial in the long run. 美联储的降息周期才刚开始，如果真的加速降息，美元会继续走弱，这对人民币有利。The Fed’s rate cut cycle has just begun; if it accelerates, the dollar will continue to weaken, which is favorable for the RMB. 中美贸易关系的走向也很关键，如果继续缓和，人民币会获得支撑；如果又出现紧张，贬值压力会回来。The direction of China-US trade relations is also crucial; continued easing will support the RMB, while renewed tensions will bring depreciation pressure.
从美元对人民币汇率预测的角度，接下来的重点是看这些因素如何演变。From the perspective of USD to RMB exchange rate forecasts, the key is how these factors evolve. 短期内人民币可能维持偏强态势，但快速升破7.0以下的概率不算高。In the short term, the RMB may remain relatively strong, but the probability of quickly breaking below 7.0 is not high. 中长期来看，如果上面这些支撑因素持续存在，人民币确实有机会启动新一轮升值周期。这次转折点可能真的来了，值得持续观察。In the medium to long term, if these supporting factors persist, the RMB indeed has a chance to start a new appreciation cycle. This turning point may have truly arrived, and it’s worth ongoing observation.