I bought some bets on the US military entering Iran before December 31st. Expected to get results by around mid-April at the latest, otherwise I'll take the loss.



1️⃣The Marines arrive around 3.26. If military action happens, it will likely be late March to early April.

2️⃣ Iran's high-ranking negotiators basically get taken out one by one. Petrochemical facilities were just hit again. Estimated retaliation is coming. The US can't abandon its Middle East influence, but can't get a good price either. Both sides seem ready to escalate.

3️⃣Late March already at 32%, December 64% seems somewhat undervalued. Even if military action is ultimately decided against, December still offers a long enough window for stop-loss.
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