Analyse : le Bitcoin monte en flèche puis redescend, tombant en dessous de 80 000 dollars, la sortie de fonds ETF combinée aux risques géopolitiques pèse sur le sentiment du marché

Mars Finance information, Bitcoin fell below $80,000 this week, ending a five-day streak of net inflows into spot ETFs, and market momentum from the February lows has cooled.
U.S. non-farm payrolls in April added 115,000 jobs, higher than the expected 62,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%.
Although the data was generally strong, it did not significantly improve market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainties, but rather reinforced expectations of “energy-driven inflation limiting room for rate cuts.”
In terms of capital flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs turned to a net outflow of $277 million on Thursday, ending a previous continuous inflow of $1.69 billion; Ethereum ETFs also recorded a net outflow of $104 million on the same day, indicating a short-term cooling of institutional risk appetite.
On the geopolitical front, tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated again, with markets re-pricing the risk of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in oil prices, partially offsetting the support from falling oil prices on risk assets.
The derivatives market shows more long-term hawkish expectations, with interest rate futures pricing over a 50% chance of rate hikes after 2027, and the easing cycle possibly being delayed until 2028.
On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin’s recent rise was mainly driven by institutional spot buying and short covering, while retail participation remains relatively low, funding rates stay moderate, and market momentum is relatively weak.
Analysts believe that if retail funds do not flow back, BTC still faces the risk of retesting support levels between $75,000 and $78,000.