Lord WilliamUK

比特币熊市结束了吗？还有最后一跌吗？10年有效的MVRV指标告诉你
参考下图，2014年以来，3轮大熊市有效的指标MVRV Z-Score指标显示， $BTC 可能还有最后一跌，才能见周期大底。
MVRV Z-Score 通过标准化市场价值和已实现价值之间的差额，来评估比特币相对于其公允价值是被高估还是低估。
当市场价值显著高于已实现价值时，通常表明市场已见顶（红色区域）；当市场价值显著低于已实现价值时，则通常表明市场已见底（绿色区域）。
另外，UNPL、AVIV等指标也显示，目前还没到周期大底。
最理想的走势，在今年第四季度， $BTC 走出最后一浪下跌，在55K左右见底，开启新一轮牛市。
但最后一浪，需要事件和宏观驱动，2022年的最后一浪下跌是FTX交易所挤兑破产引发的恐慌抛售导致的。
有没有指标显示，大底已经到了？ 如果没有最后一浪，怎么操作？
下一个帖子，我分析下。
Has the Bitcoin bear market ended? Or is there still one final leg down? A 10-year-proven MVRV indicator has the answer.
As shown in the chart below, the MVRV Z-Score—an indicator that has successfully iden

海力士再次暴跌，深不见底？没救了吗？10年数据看大底在哪
韩国的加息，结合韩国金融监管机构的去杠杆，没有提振韩股市场的信心，今天三星、海力士继续暴跌；
海力士，变成了海公公；
结合周三阿斯麦 $ASML 、今天台积电 $TSM 的财报和展望，半导体业基本面依旧强劲；
海力士的大底在哪？
根据下图，近10年的海力士的NTM PE，目前到了4.9倍；10年的大底，在4倍PE左右；
不考虑连环爆仓的极端情况，最多再跌近20%海力士 $SKHY 会触底；
其他变量：
1.美伊冲突的升级和油价反弹的程度；
2.7月22日到30日，6大科技股的财报和CAPEX预期；
3.7月28日，海力士财报及前瞻。
结论：
1.在基本面支撑下，下跌是机会；
2.做好仓位管理，耐心等待；
2. 计划150-120分批买入$SKHY。
SK Hynix keeps plunging—is there no bottom in sight? Has the story broken? A 10-year valuation tells us where the major bottom may be.
South Korea’s interest rate hike, combined with financial regulators’ deleveraging efforts, has failed to r

大非农趋冷，加息预计推迟，利好，加仓了些
$TSM 449
$ASML 1860
$DRAM 65
$GLW 224
The Nonfarm Payrolls report came in softer than expected, pushing back expectations for the next rate hike — a positive development for the market, so I added to a few positions.
$TSM at 449
$ASML at 1,860
$DRAM at 65
$GLW at 224

又到了到了极度恐慌时刻，332-311分批买入 $TSM
AAII, Put/call ratio等指标显示，机构和散户都陷入了恐慌；
油价飙升，黄金暴跌，美股大跌，我们买入的 $INTC 在逆势上涨；
基本面过硬的企业，将穿越危机，332-311分批买入 $TSM
Another panic moment — scaling into $TSM between 332 and 311.
AAII sentiment, put/call ratio, and other indicators all signal that both institutional and retail investors have fallen into panic mode.
Oil is surging, gold is selling off, U.S. equities are tanking — yet our $INTC position is bucking the trend and moving higher.
Companies with rock-solid fundamentals will navigate through the crisis. Scaling into $TSM in tranches between 332 and 311.

美股50日综合广度跌至30，季度新低，加仓真当时！
散户看空比例也达到了季度新高；
做空及对冲比率也在高位；
337买了 $TSM ；
等待美伊冲突的下一个转折点，到时上仓位。
U.S. stocks: the 50-day breadth has dropped to 30, a quarterly low — a great time to add positions!
The percentage of retail investors turning bearish has also reached a quarterly high.
Short interest and hedging ratios are elevated as well.
Bought $TSM at 337.
Waiting for the next turning point in the U.S.–Iran conflict, and then I’ll increase my positions.

大大的套利机会！80%+利润空间
在Kalshi。
Huge arbitrage opportunity! 80%+ profit potential — on Kalshi.

美股各顶级投资机构在第四季度的重大加减仓操作有哪些？
根据SEC 13F证券报告：
1. 伯克希尔·哈撒韦 (Berkshire Hathaway) — 沃伦·巴菲特
重大建仓：新购入价值约9.08亿美元的Liberty/Viacom关联股(和纽约时报)NYT(。
重大加仓：继续增持安达保险)Chubb, CB(、雪佛龙)C(和达美乐比萨)DPZ(。
重大减仓：进一步削减苹果)Apple, AAPL(的头寸（减持约4.3%），并减持了约8.9%的美国银行)BAC(。同时显著减持了安盛保险公司Aon PLC)AON(，并清空了部分亚马逊)AMZN(的仓位。
2. 桥水基金)Bridgewater Associates( — 瑞·达利欧
重大建仓：单季度新建仓191只股票，包括Robinhood)HOOD(、休马纳)HUM(和Zebra Technologies)ZBRA(。
重大加仓：对AI赛道表现出极高信心，大举买入约135万股英伟达)NVDA(，使其持仓总值达到7.2亿美元。此外还大幅加仓了Oracle)ORCL(（增持361%）和美光科技)MU(。
重大减仓：减持了微软)MSFT(、亚马逊)AMZN(和Visa)V(，并大幅削减了iShares核心MSCI新兴市场ETF)IEMG(。
3. 索罗斯基金管理公司)Soros Fund Management( — 乔治·索罗斯
重大

美股：这两个指标显示，现在不需要恐慌出售，可以分批买入
包括下图指标在内的3个指标显示，现在是可以分批买入美股的时刻；
刚出炉的CPI低于预期，也释放了一定的风险；
182.5-170分批买入 $NVDA
197-185分批买入 $AMZN
$SPY $NVDA $AMZN $TSLA
Two indicators show there’s no need to panic-sell now — it’s a time to scale in $SPX
Three indicators, including the ones in the chart below, suggest that this is a good moment to start buying U.S. stocks in tranches.
The freshly released CPI came in lower than expected, which has also helped reduce some risk.
Bought $NVDA in stages between 182.5–170.
Bought $AMZN in stages between 197–185.
$SPY $NVDA $AMZN $TSLA

Coinbase溢价指数新低，美国散户恐慌割肉中，买不买？这是个成功率不错的反向指标；另外期权信号显示，现在值得分批买入；下周一，白宫开会推进《CLARITY法案》立法进程 ；买了点 $BTC $COIN ，做个小反弹。Coinbase premium index has hit a new low, with U.S. retail investors panic-selling — buy or not?This has historically been a pretty reliable contrarian indicator.Option signals also suggest it’s worth scaling in now.Next Monday, the White House will hold a meeting to push forward the CLARITY Act’s legislative process.Just bought some $BTC and $COIN.

247.9 买了点 $APPLBought a little $APPL at 247.9

芯片出口管制有松动迹象，是时候逐步买回 $NVDA 了
$NVDA 虽然被低估，但近期被谷歌TPU和其他ASIC芯片压制；
但长期来看，GPU和ASIC芯片将长期共存，主导的还是GPU。
周三Jeson会见了特朗普，两人讨论了芯片出口限制问题。
美股的牛市，离不开英伟达的再次雄起。
现价180到160可以分批买入 $NVDA
There are signs that GPU export controls are easing, so it’s time to gradually buy back $NVDA.
Although $NVDA is undervalued, it’s recently been overshadowed by Google’s TPUs and other ASIC chips.
In the long run, though, GPUs and ASICs will coexist for a long time, with GPUs remaining the dominant force.
On Wednesday, Jensen met with Trump, and the two discussed chip export restrictions.
A U.S. bull market can’t really take off wit

英伟达合理价格为220，黑五打折分批买！
180.5加仓了 $NVDA
根据昨天英伟达财报的EPS和增速，更新测算了合理价，220是$NVDA 合理价，黑色星期五的打折不要错过。
下图的Put/call ratio和VIX都显示，美股 $SPX 的底部就在眼前。
做好仓位管理，分批买入优质标的。
The fair value for NVIDIA is 220 — Buy the Black Friday discount sale!
Just bought more $NVDA at 180.5.
Based on yesterday’s NVIDIA earnings (EPS and growth rate), I recalculated the fair value. 220 is the fair price for $NVDA, so don’t miss the Black Friday discount.
The Put/Call Ratio and VIX in the chart both indicate that the bottom of $SPX is near.
Manage your positions well and buy quality tickers in batches.

224买入了 $AMZN, 488买入了 $MSFT
4个监控信号显示，本周是抄底美股的时机；
等待明晚英伟达财报；
大概率beat，但需要看机构是否sell the news；
若是拉升，空头燃料足够，感恩节行情就要开启了。
Bought $AMZN at 224 and $MSFT at 488.
4 signals suggest that this week is a good time to bottom-fish U.S. stocks.
We’re waiting for NVIDIA’s earnings tomorrow night.
It will most likely beat expectations, but we need to see whether Wall street will sell the news.
If the stock rallies, the Thanksgiving rally is about to begin.

买了点 $KWEB 39.9
几个中概头部公司财报都不错；
港股也在跟随A股走强。
$Tcehy $BABA $PDD $JD
Bought some $KWEB at 39.9
Several leading Chinese companies have reported solid earnings;
HSI are also strengthening along with China stock market.

AI泡沫的恐惧，让美股迎来像样的回调；币圈退场的资金已经如饥似渴；
425买入了 $TSLA
182买入了 $NVDA
SPX目前6675，到6650区间，计划分批买入优质标的。
11-12月几个利好，在路上。
Fears of an AI bubble have triggered correction in $SPX, while sidelined fund from my crypto is now hungry to re-enter.
Bought $TSLA at 425 and $NVDA at 182.
With the $SPX now at 6666, planning to accumulate quality tickers gradually to the 6650 range.
Several bullish news are on the way in November and December.