韩国的加息，结合韩国金融监管机构的去杠杆，没有提振韩股市场的信心，今天三星、海力士继续暴跌； 海力士，变成了海公公； 结合周三阿斯麦 $ASML 、今天台积电 $TSM 的财报和展望，半导体业基本面依旧强劲； 海力士的大底在哪？ 根据下图，近10年的海力士的NTM PE，目前到了4.9倍；10年的大底，在4倍PE左右； 不考虑连环爆仓的极端情况，最多再跌近20%海力士 $SKHY 会触底； 其他变量： 1.美伊冲突的升级和油价反弹的程度； 2.7月22日到30日，6大科技股的财报和CAPEX预期； 3.7月28日，海力士财报及前瞻。 结论： 1.在基本面支撑下，下跌是机会； 2.做好仓位管理，耐心等待； 2. 计划150-120分批买入$SKHY。 SK Hynix keeps plunging—is there no bottom in sight? Has the story broken? A 10-year valuation tells us where the major bottom may be. South Korea’s interest rate hike, combined with financial regulators’ deleveraging efforts, has failed to restore confidence in the Korean stock market. Today, both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continued to sell off sharply. SK Hynix has gone from a market darling to a market punching bag. That said, judging by this week’s earnings and guidance from $ASML on Wednesday and $TSM today, the semiconductor industry's fundamentals remain solid. So where could SK Hynix bottom? Based on the chart below, SK Hynix’s next-twelve-month (NTM) P/E has fallen to 4.9x, approaching levels last seen over the past decade. Historically, the major valuation floor has been around 4.0x NTM P/E. Assuming there isn’t an extreme cascade of forced liquidations, another decline of up to 20% could bring $SKHY close to its cycle bottom. Key variables to watch: Whether the U.S.–Iran conflict escalates and how much oil prices rebound. The earnings reports and CapEx outlooks from the six mega-cap tech companies between July 22 and July 30. SK Hynix’s earnings report and forward guidance on July 28. My conclusion: As long as the fundamentals remain intact, selloffs create opportunities. Manage your position sizing carefully and stay patient. I plan to accumulate $SKHY gradually between 150 and 120.
海力士再次暴跌，深不见底？没救了吗？10年数据看大底在哪
韩国的加息，结合韩国金融监管机构的去杠杆，没有提振韩股市场的信心，今天三星、海力士继续暴跌；
海力士，变成了海公公；
结合周三阿斯麦 $ASML 、今天台积电 $TSM 的财报和展望，半导体业基本面依旧强劲；
海力士的大底在哪？
根据下图，近10年的海力士的NTM PE，目前到了4.9倍；10年的大底，在4倍PE左右；
不考虑连环爆仓的极端情况，最多再跌近20%海力士 $SKHY 会触底；
其他变量：
1.美伊冲突的升级和油价反弹的程度；
2.7月22日到30日，6大科技股的财报和CAPEX预期；
3.7月28日，海力士财报及前瞻。
结论：
1.在基本面支撑下，下跌是机会；
2.做好仓位管理，耐心等待；
2. 计划150-120分批买入$SKHY。
SK Hynix keeps plunging—is there no bottom in sight? Has the story broken? A 10-year valuation tells us where the major bottom may be.
South Korea’s interest rate hike, combined with financial regulators’ deleveraging efforts, has failed to restore confidence in the Korean stock market. Today, both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continued to sell off sharply.
SK Hynix has gone from a market darling to a market punching bag.
That said, judging by this week’s earnings and guidance from $ASML on Wednesday and $TSM today, the semiconductor industry's fundamentals remain solid.
So where could SK Hynix bottom?
Based on the chart below, SK Hynix’s next-twelve-month (NTM) P/E has fallen to 4.9x, approaching levels last seen over the past decade. Historically, the major valuation floor has been around 4.0x NTM P/E.
Assuming there isn’t an extreme cascade of forced liquidations, another decline of up to 20% could bring $SKHY close to its cycle bottom.
Key variables to watch:
Whether the U.S.–Iran conflict escalates and how much oil prices rebound.
The earnings reports and CapEx outlooks from the six mega-cap tech companies between July 22 and July 30.
SK Hynix’s earnings report and forward guidance on July 28.
My conclusion:
As long as the fundamentals remain intact, selloffs create opportunities.
Manage your position sizing carefully and stay patient.
I plan to accumulate $SKHY gradually between 150 and 120.