$2.7TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.
Day's Range
$244.42 - $251.00
52wk Range
$196.00 - $278.56
Volume
1.3M
Avg Vol
50.6M
Gross Margin
50.60%
What investors are really buying at Walmart and Costco
$405BMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.
Day's Range
$907.38 - $916.73
52wk Range
$844.06 - $1096.50
Volume
70.7K
Avg Vol
2.3M
Gross Margin
12.88%
Dividend Yield
0.59%
Why Amazon's own success makes its multiple look small
Amazon 的低倍數，說得有點奇怪，部分是因為「事情往順利的方向發展」的故事。它的獲利成長得太快了，以致於本益比中的「E」被放大，數學上即使股價上漲，該比率也仍被拉得更小。這台引擎並不是大家腦中想像的那種線上商店。真正的關鍵是 Amazon Web Services（AWS），也就是雲端部門，近期的成長速度是多年來最快的；此外還有一個蓬勃發展的廣告業務，圍繞著你在網站搜尋時看到的贊助列表而建立。
$893BMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.
Day's Range
$111.93 - $114.14
52wk Range
$94.23 - $135.16
Volume
12.3M
Avg Vol
21.9M
Gross Margin
24.98%
Dividend Yield
0.86%
Cheaper on a P/E basis isn't the same as a better buy, and that's the trap to avoid. Walmart and Costco's premiums are earned by genuine consistency, but a premium also means less room for error if growth ever slows. Amazon's lower multiple looks tempting, but it comes with big AI bets that have to pay off. My honest read is that the "discount" on Amazon says more about what investors fear than about what Amazon is worth. Decide which trade-off fits you, and price it accordingly.
為什麼亞馬遜比沃爾瑪和好市多便宜這麼多？這是我唯一能想到的答案。
Amazon（AMZN 0.73%）是多數人會把它歸類為「昂貴的成長型股票」的那家公司，其遠期本益比（forward price-to-earnings ratio）比兩家老牌零售商 Walmart（WMT +1.51%）和 Costco Wholesale（COST +0.33%）更低。對任何較新接觸這個指標的人來說，遠期本益比只是用來衡量：投資人今天願意付出多少美元，來換取該公司未來一年預期獲利的每 1 美元。數字越低，表示以這個指標來看，該股票就越「便宜」。
Image source: Getty Images.
以這個衡量標準來看，Amazon 是這群裡最划算的那一個。它最近交易時的遠期倍數在 20 多倍的高段，而 Walmart 則更接近 30 多倍的高段，Costco 的倍數則在 40 多倍的中段。再讀一次：市場要你為「Costco 的未來獲利」的每 1 美元付出遠高於「Amazon 的未來獲利」的每 1 美元的價格。以一家公司像 Amazon 這麼快速成長、又如此主導市場來說，這感覺是反過來的。那到底怎麼了？想了很久後，我能接受的唯一答案是：這三檔股票的定價正在對應完全不同的東西。
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NASDAQ: AMZN
Amazon
Today's Change
（-0.73%）$-1.81
Current Price
$245.23
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$2.7TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.
Day's Range
$244.42 - $251.00
52wk Range
$196.00 - $278.56
Volume
1.3M
Avg Vol
50.6M
Gross Margin
50.60%
What investors are really buying at Walmart and Costco
Walmart 和 Costco 其實核心就是為「可預測性」而打造的機器。人們在好時光與壞時光都會買雜貨與家用品的基本需求，讓它們的銷售異常穩定。Costco 再加上會員制，讓顧客變成會持續續訂的訂戶，從而帶來接近忠誠的回訪，而 Walmart 近年來則悄悄在門市基礎上累積更高毛利的業務，例如廣告以及自家的會員方案。這兩家公司都沒有停下腳步。
但在我看來，它們的倍數之所以爬到這麼高，是因為投資人正在為「確定性」支付溢價。在一個被關稅、利率變動、以及消費者被推到過度緊繃所引發疑慮而顫動的市場裡，一家能夠每一年都可靠地讓獲利小幅成長的企業，就會變成某種安全港。資金湧入這種可靠性，而擠進來的資金又把股價往上推。你買的就不只是零售商；你買的是安心感，而安心感從來沒有像現在這麼受追捧。
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NASDAQ: COST
Costco Wholesale
Today's Change
（0.33%）$3.04
Current Price
$916.01
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$405BMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.
Day's Range
$907.38 - $916.73
52wk Range
$844.06 - $1096.50
Volume
70.7K
Avg Vol
2.3M
Gross Margin
12.88%
Dividend Yield
0.59%
Why Amazon's own success makes its multiple look small
Amazon 的低倍數，說得有點奇怪，部分是因為「事情往順利的方向發展」的故事。它的獲利成長得太快了，以致於本益比中的「E」被放大，數學上即使股價上漲，該比率也仍被拉得更小。這台引擎並不是大家腦中想像的那種線上商店。真正的關鍵是 Amazon Web Services（AWS），也就是雲端部門，近期的成長速度是多年來最快的；此外還有一個蓬勃發展的廣告業務，圍繞著你在網站搜尋時看到的贊助列表而建立。
這兩者產生的利潤率遠高於單純出貨紙箱，而管理層也表示，整體獲利能力最近已達到公司歷史最佳水準。Amazon 甚至正在設計自家資料中心晶片，這有助於它在擴充人工智慧的產能時控制成本。
The only answer I can think of
所以答案我落在這裡。Walmart 和 Costco 被用「像可靠、類債券的複利推進者」的方式來估值，而市場為那份可靠性給了很高的溢價。Amazon 則被用「科技公司的方式」來估值：它的獲利仍在持續拉升，而且仍和在雲端與 AI 基礎設施上的大量、且不確定性很高的支出綁在一起。
投資人幾乎完全相信這兩家零售商未來幾年的表現，所以就願意付更高價格。他們也相信 Amazon 的底層生意，但會因其波動性以及它正投入大量資本到未來而給出折價。這個落差其實不太是在比較哪家公司更好。它在於市場願不願意為「更平順的旅程」付出代價，相較之下「更快、更顛簸的旅程」又如何。
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NASDAQ: WMT
Walmart
Today's Change
（1.51%）$1.69
Current Price
$113.90
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$893BMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.
Day's Range
$111.93 - $114.14
52wk Range
$94.23 - $135.16
Volume
12.3M
Avg Vol
21.9M
Gross Margin
24.98%
Dividend Yield
0.86%
Cheaper on a P/E basis isn't the same as a better buy, and that's the trap to avoid. Walmart and Costco's premiums are earned by genuine consistency, but a premium also means less room for error if growth ever slows. Amazon's lower multiple looks tempting, but it comes with big AI bets that have to pay off. My honest read is that the "discount" on Amazon says more about what investors fear than about what Amazon is worth. Decide which trade-off fits you, and price it accordingly.