CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Shows Declining Capitulation Signals, Though Final Market Washout Risk Remains | Metaverse Post

In Brief

CryptoQuant analysis suggests Bitcoin capitulation is easing, but uncertainty remains over whether a final market washout is needed.

Researcher MorenoDV_ from cryptocurrency analytics firm CryptoQuant has published an analysis suggesting that Bitcoin may be approaching a late-stage capitulation phase, although the market has yet to provide definitive confirmation of a bottom. The research highlights a notable shift in the behavior of sellers, raising questions about whether the current correction is nearing exhaustion or if another downward move is still required before a broader recovery can emerge.

According to the analysis, Bitcoin is entering a critical period of loss realization, but the current market structure differs from the first major decline experienced earlier in the year. Data from the 30-day Net Realized Profit/Loss metric shows that investors are still realizing losses, but at a significantly lower magnitude than during the initial sell-off

Earlier in the year, the market absorbed approximately 400,000 BTC in realized losses, while the current wave has reached around 234,000 BTC despite Bitcoin trading at comparable price levels.

The decline in realized loss intensity suggests that a substantial portion of panic-driven selling may have already occurred. In previous phases of the correction, weaker holders exited the market in larger numbers, whereas current price levels appear to be generating less aggressive capitulation. This indicates that the pool of sellers willing to liquidate positions at a loss may be shrinking.

Additional support for this view comes from the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta indicator. While selling activity remains evident, it has not reached the extreme levels typically associated with major capitulation events. Historically, similar market conditions have emerged after a large share of speculative or weaker participants has already left the market, though a final wave of selling pressure has sometimes been required before a durable bottom forms.

The broader picture remains less conclusive. MorenoDV_ noted that the one-year Net Realized Profit/Loss metric remains negative but has not yet reached the deeply negative levels that have historically accompanied major Bitcoin cycle lows. This suggests that although market stress remains elevated, conditions do not yet fully resemble previous bottoming phases.

As a result, the analysis concludes that Bitcoin may be in a late-stage correction characterized by fading loss intensity and a reduced presence of weak-handed sellers. However, confirmation of a market bottom is still absent. The key issue is whether realized losses continue to decline while prices stabilize, a pattern that could signal seller exhaustion, or whether another decline triggers a renewed spike in realized losses and a final capitulation event.

Market Pullback Deepens Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $62,656, down 2.46% over the previous 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday high of $64,270 and a low of $62,280. According to CoinMarketCap data, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.16 trillion, down 2.29% over the same period, while 24-hour trading volume fell 11.14% to $73.74 billion.

Bitcoin’s decline follows a broader market pullback that saw the asset fall from above $67,000 at the start of the week to the $62,000 range. The correction has coincided with renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, which has weighed on risk sentiment across global financial markets. Despite ongoing regional tensions, oil prices have continued to trend lower throughout the week, adding another layer of complexity to investor expectations.