After France announced additional troop deployment to the Middle East, spot gold fell to $4,550, down 2.19% intraday; silver crashed 6.00%; Bitcoin briefly broke below $70,000. As geopolitical conflicts escalate, safe-haven assets fall instead of rising—seemingly anomalous, yet the logic is clear.

As mentioned before, the market is currently pricing not "risk events," but the transmission chain of "oil prices → inflation → interest rates." Increased troop deployment has intensified expectations of Strait of Hormuz blockades, keeping oil prices elevated, warming inflation expectations, and directly postponing the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting timeline, with real interest rate expectations rising—this directly suppresses interest-free assets like gold, while silver's industrial properties have led to sharper declines. Bitcoin briefly breaking below $70,000 further confirms: faced with expectations of tightening liquidity, crypto assets are equally unable to remain unaffected. The gains accumulated from consecutive ETF net inflows are being given back under macroeconomic pressure.

In the short term, as long as the combination of "elevated oil prices + no prospect of rate cuts" remains unchanged, geopolitical conflicts themselves are no longer a reason for gold to rise. The true reversal signal may have to wait until energy risks ease and the market reprices the rate-cutting path. #美联储3月议息会议 $SIREN