Địa chính trị hòa hoãn tái tạo câu chuyện về cú sốc năng lượng, Thống đốc Ngân hàng Trung ương Pháp François Villeroy de Galhau: ECB đã ở "vị trí tốt"

The easing of geopolitical tensions has driven oil prices down, continuously reducing the energy import inflationary pressure faced by the eurozone, and market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank have also significantly cooled.

On July 3, François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France and ECB Governing Council member, stated at the Aix-en-Provence Economic Forum in France that after completing the rate hike in June, the European Central Bank is in a "good position." He noted that it is still too early to judge the policy direction for the July and September meetings, future policy will adhere to data dependency, will not provide forward guidance, and does not imply the start of a new continuous rate hike cycle.

As the impact of the energy shock weakens, differences within the European Central Bank over subsequent policy are gradually emerging. On one hand, some officials believe that falling oil prices and cooling inflation provide room for a pause in rate hikes; on the other hand, there are concerns that previous energy costs may still be transmitted through wages and service prices with a lag, requiring continued policy caution.

Falling oil prices ease inflation pressure, ECB emphasizes data dependency

Villeroy de Galhau stated that the recent decline in oil prices is alleviating price pressures in the eurozone, particularly helping to curb service sector inflation. Currently, the European Central Bank has not seen a "second-round effect" of energy price increases spreading persistently to broader areas such as wages and services, meaning the inflation spiral risk previously feared by the market has not yet materialized.

At its June meeting, the European Central Bank unanimously supported a 25 basis point rate hike, with officials generally concerned that rising oil prices could fuel broader inflationary pressures. However, since then, as geopolitical improvements led to falling oil prices and inflation in the eurozone cooled more than expected, internal views on whether to continue tightening policies have begun to diverge.

The market has also adjusted its policy expectations, with investors significantly reducing bets on further rate hikes by the European Central Bank this year. As the impact of energy prices on inflation weakens, the future path of eurozone interest rates will depend more on data such as core inflation and wage growth, and the European Central Bank will continue to adhere to a decision-making framework based on meeting-by-meeting and data dependency.

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