Ra khỏi đáy thị trường Trung Quốc, Nike cần thêm vài mùa giải?

Nike's China problem remains unsolved this quarter.

On June 30, Nike disclosed its Q4 fiscal 2026 and full-year results (for the period ending May 31, 2026).

In the fourth fiscal quarter, the company's revenue was $11 billion, down 1% year-over-year, or 4% on a currency-neutral basis; full-year revenue was $46.4 billion, roughly flat on a reported basis, down 2% on a currency-neutral basis.

On the surface, Nike's profit side has significantly recovered, with net profit in the fourth fiscal quarter reaching $1.1 billion, a huge increase of 407% year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share of $0.72, but this performance largely came from a one-time benefit from tariff refunds.

The financial report shows that the expected recovery of IEEPA tariffs brought a $986 million benefit, contributing approximately 900 basis points to the gross margin in the fourth fiscal quarter and $0.52 to EPS. Excluding this factor, Nike's EPS in the fourth fiscal quarter was only $0.20.

What is affecting market sentiment is still the lack of a reversal in Nike China's performance.

In the fourth fiscal quarter, Nike's Greater China revenue was $1.297 billion, down 12% year-over-year, or 17% on a currency-neutral basis, falling to a low point in the last two fiscal years.

For the full year, Greater China revenue was $5.847 billion, down 11% year-over-year, down 13% on a currency-neutral basis, continuing to weaken on top of the decline in the previous fiscal year.

The pressure in Greater China is not just a regional figure in the financial report; it is the most difficult part for Nike to repair in its global reset.

During the earnings call, CEO Elliott Hill referred to Greater China as Nike's "key long-term growth market" and stated that the company is executing a "comprehensive reset" in China: returning to sports and innovation, creating products more locally, building an offensive system closer to the regional market, while rethinking market operations, evaluating new growth paths with partners, making the brand more premium and closer to local culture, and operating at the pace of Chinese consumers.

Behind this statement are the old problems that Nike China has been exposing over the past two years: insufficient product heat, high online discounts, pressure on inventory and channel health, and intensified competition from local sports brands.

Nike is not unaware of local improvements.

CFO Matthew Friend said on the earnings call that Greater China made several adjustments in the quarter: sell-through rates improved sequentially, average retail discounts decreased; after more aggressively reducing promotions in the past two quarters, the full-price realization rate on digital channels is recovering. At the same time, both inventory value and unit count in Greater China saw double-digit declines.

However, these improvements are not enough to offset the overall decline.

In the fourth fiscal quarter, Nike Direct in Greater China fell 14%, of which Nike Digital fell 25%, Nike-owned stores fell 9%; wholesale channel fell 19%; earnings before interest and taxes (reported basis, excluding one-time factors) fell 20%.

The company also expects that short-term revenue trends in Greater China will be broadly consistent with recent performance.

This means that in the coming period, Nike China's recovery will still be in the stage of clearing inventory, reducing discounts, and restructuring key stores, and has not yet entered a phase of stable growth recovery.

The channel anxiety in the Chinese market has already spilled over to the capital market ahead of the financial report.

In late June, the market heard rumors that Nike might cancel authorization for first-tier online distributors in mainland China starting from January 2027. However, this news was quickly clarified by Nike's main distributor in China, TOP SPORTS, through an announcement, and Nike also denied it on the earnings call.

The reason the rumor attracted widespread attention is that it hit a sensitive area in Nike China's channel structure.

In the past few years, Nike had placed more emphasis on DTC and digital direct sales, but as direct sales came under pressure and wholesale partners regained importance, the company is repairing its relationships with distributors and retailers globally.

In the fourth fiscal quarter of fiscal 2026, Nike's global wholesale revenue was $6.6 billion, up 4% year-over-year; Nike Direct revenue was $4.1 billion, down 7% year-over-year, of which Nike Brand Digital fell 12%.

After Elliott Hill returned, he proposed "Win Now" and "Sport Offense," focusing on sports, product innovation, wholesale partners, and key markets.

But in the latest earnings call, he acknowledged that the company's overall results "have not yet reached the expected level," and sell-through for Nike Sportswear and Jordan Streetwear still faces challenges, affecting current discounts and future orders.

This is also a microcosm of Nike China's problem. Chinese consumers are not no longer buying sports shoes and apparel; they have more choices, faster pace, and greater price sensitivity.

Local brands continue to increase their presence in segmented sports scenarios such as running, outdoor, basketball, and training, and e-commerce platforms and content channels further amplify price comparisons and the speed of new product dissemination.

Nike's model of relying on global bestsellers, classic shoes, and brand halo for premium pricing has been weakened more significantly in the Chinese market.

The capital market is not tolerant of this. After Nike's financial report was released, its stock price once fell about 4% in after-hours trading, with a cumulative decline of about 35% since the beginning of the year; investors are still waiting for more clear results from Hill's nearly two-year recovery plan.

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