Iranian people shake hands while sharpening knives, the market rises first out of respect, do you dare to go all-in and follow?

Today's big news is: the Strait of Hormuz has reopened.

The Iranian Foreign Minister personally said that commercial ships can go freely. Oil prices plummeted by 3% in response, BTC broke through $78,000, and the entire crypto sector took off.

Trump also quickly came out to take credit: Iran agrees to “indefinitely suspend nuclear projects,” negotiations can reach an agreement “within a day or two.” He even hinted — in the future, Hormuz might be “free passage.”

Does this sound like a big ending?

But don’t rush to pop the champagne.

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While the Foreign Minister released a “peace signal,” the Speaker of the Parliament directly retorted:

Absolutely will not give up control of Hormuz.

Trump’s seven statements are all false.

Taste it, analyze it carefully.

The Foreign Minister smiles and shakes hands at the negotiation table, while the Speaker sharpens his knives behind the scenes. One says “let’s talk,” the other says “never retreat”—this is a typical Iranian double play.

What does this internal split mean?

A ceasefire agreement could break at any time, geopolitical risks could strike back at any moment.

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Pay attention to a detail:

Oil prices fall, BTC rises, institutions buy 32,000 ETH in a single day… all assets reflect the same expectation — peace has arrived, risks are lifted.

But the problem is: the agreement isn’t signed yet.

Trump says “within a day or two,” the Speaker of Parliament says “never give up.”

How many “unexpected” events are between these two?

If negotiations falter, hardliners turn over, or the strait is blocked again…

Those who chase in now will find themselves standing on the mountain top later.

The biggest risk in the market isn’t bad news, but everyone believing in good news.

On the day the Speaker shouts “never give up,” you only see BTC break 78,000.

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I’m not telling you to hold no position and miss out, nor to blindly chase longs.

But here’s a reminder:

- The news has already priced in the “best-case scenario”—if the script changes, the correction won’t be gentle.

- Institutions are buying, but they have hedges. You only have one life.

- The Hormuz issue has never been solvable in one negotiation. Handshake today, break up tomorrow, that’s how the Middle East script is always written.

Real experts, when others are all-in optimistic, are already calculating the odds of “collapse.”

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BTC breaking 78,000 is great, I get it.

But don’t get drunk on the “ceasefire narrative.”

The Iranians themselves haven’t agreed on anything, and you dare to believe in peace for them?

Keep half alert, keep half your position, don’t wait until oil rises and ships are blocked to realize today’s post.

Do you think this negotiation is true reconciliation, or just a halftime break? #山寨币强势反弹 #美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈 $BTC $ETH