【Bitcoin Market Quick Report: Rebound Touches 62,800, Short Position Zones Have Arrived!】

Bitcoin rebounded from 59,000 to 62,800, an increase of about 6.5%. Some are asking: Is the bottom in? Should we chase the rally?

After reading this latest article 《Sixty Thousand Bottoming VS Three Ten Thousand Bearish: Who Is Lying in Bitcoin’s Bull-Bear Battle?》, the conclusion is:

The mid-term logic is being fulfilled: Wave 5 decline, macro bearish news, liquidity tightening—these factors are gaining strength over a 6-12 month horizon. ETF continuous outflows, MicroStrategy reducing holdings, miner sell-offs, Japan’s rate hike countdown—each straw is adding pressure.

With a 90% probability, the 60,000 level is not the bottom of this bear market, but a continuation of the decline.

This is not a trend reversal; it’s a technical rebound driven by short covering. The 62,500-63,500 zone is the short position entry zone.

The rebound has occurred, and shorting on the way down is a good trading strategy!

Now I will analyze point by point:

1. An overview of key data.

ETF continuous net outflows: 14 consecutive trading days
Total ETF outflows (since May 15): about 4.4 billion USD
ETF net outflow on June 6: about 210 million USD (BlackRock IBIT outflow of 213 million)

This week’s total liquidation: about 7 billion USD

US May Non-Farm Payrolls: +172,000 vs 85,000 expected
Probability of rate hike before year-end: about 70-80%

Japan Bank of Japan June rate hike probability: over 90% (June 15-16)
Fear and Greed Index: about 11 (Extreme Fear)

2. Nature of the rebound: short covering, not a reversal.

Price rebounded from 59,000 to 62,800, but trading volume during the rebound did not significantly increase. The past 24 hours’ volume was about 16,400 BTC, significantly below the 7-day average.

This is a typical technical rebound driven by short covering. Shorts took profits below 60,000, pushing prices higher, but new buying did not enter.

The volume during the rebound is clearly weaker than during the decline, with buyers far weaker than sellers. This is not a trend reversal signal.

3. Why is the 62,800 area a short position zone?

First, technical analysis: the 62,800 zone has formed obvious resistance, with multiple rejections. The 4-hour chart shows prices below all moving averages, which are arranged downward. The daily structure from 77,300 to 59,786 shows decreasing highs and lows, and the current rebound has not broken the downtrend structure.

Second, on-chain data: ETF net outflows for 14 consecutive days, totaling about 4.4 billion USD, setting a record for the longest streak. Whales holding 1,000-10,000 BTC have shifted from net buying to large net selling, with a change of about -188,000 coins this year. Listed miners sold over 19,000 BTC in one week. Passive buy orders are being overwhelmed by active selling.

Third, macro perspective: US May non-farm added 172,000 (far exceeding the expected 85,000), with the probability of rate hikes before year-end soaring to 70-80%. The Bank of Japan’s June rate hike probability exceeds 90%. June 10 CPI, June 11 World Cup opening, June 15-16 Japan rate hike, June 16-17 FOMC—four major events are densely stacked.

4. Bitcoin trading strategy.

Mid-term direction: Wave 5 decline is still ongoing; the main strategy is to short on rallies.

Short position entry: at 62,800, with a stop loss of 1,200 points.

Short-term target: 60,800.

5. Final warm reminder.

The 60,000 level has been effectively broken down, the first time since October 2024. The current rebound to 62,800 is a technical retracement after breaking key support, not a trend reversal.

The rebound highs are gradually decreasing, and bullish volume is waning. It is estimated that by June 8-9 at the earliest, or mid-next week at the latest, the 60,000 level will be tested again and may be broken through completely.

60,000 is the first stop, 55,000-58,000 is the second, and 42,000-45,000 is the final destination.

The rebound is an opportunity to short, not a reason to buy the dip. Don’t think the bull market has returned just because it rebounded a few thousand dollars.