La valorisation de SpaceX peut-elle dépasser 2 000 milliards de dollars ? Comment se positionner à l'avance via Gate Pre-IPOs

Eastern Time, May 20, 2026, SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, planning to list on Nasdaq on June 12, with stock code "SPCX", targeting a valuation range of up to 1.75 trillion to 2 trillion USD, and raising approximately 75 billion USD. If the upper end of the range is successfully achieved, SpaceX will surpass Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO record of about 29.4 billion USD, with a fundraising amount more than 2.5 times that of the latter, becoming the largest initial public offering in human history. Meanwhile, Nasdaq has revised its rules to allow large IPOs to be quickly included in the Nasdaq 100 index within 15 trading days. This "space capital feast" by SpaceX is accelerating from a long-term narrative into a substantive pre-listing pricing stage.

Market Cap 2 Trillion USD: What is the Logic Behind Such a High Valuation?

From financial data, SpaceX's valuation is not based on its short-term profitability. According to the prospectus, in 2025, SpaceX's consolidated revenue was 18.674 billion USD, a 33% increase year-over-year, but net loss was 4.937 billion USD; in Q1 2026, consolidated revenue was 4.694 billion USD, with a net loss of 4.276 billion USD. Why is a company with a single-quarter loss exceeding 4 billion USD willing to be valued at nearly 2 trillion USD?

SpaceX's current business matrix consists of three main segments: Space (aerospace), Connectivity, and AI. Among them, the connectivity segment centered on Starlink is currently the only profitable business, with full-year 2025 revenue of 11.387 billion USD, operating profit of 4.423 billion USD, EBITDA profit margin of 63%, and over 10.3 million users across 164 countries and regions. Although the aerospace segment achieved revenue of 4.086 billion USD in 2025, ongoing investments in Starship development resulted in an operating loss of 657 million USD.

The real imagination space supporting the valuation comes from the AI segment. In 2025, AI revenue was only 3.201 billion USD, but operating losses reached 6.355 billion USD. However, the prospectus predicts that the global addressable market for AI, excluding China and Russia, could reach as high as 26.5 trillion USD. Additionally, SpaceX has signed a monthly compute leasing agreement with Anthropic for 1.25 billion USD, lasting until May 2029, providing stable medium- to long-term cash flow support for the AI segment.

Starship V3 First Flight Success: Technical Strengths Back the Valuation

During the IPO countdown, SpaceX completed the 12th test flight of Starship V3 on May 23, successfully deploying 20 Starlink simulators and 2 modified test satellites, with splashdown in a designated area in the Indian Ocean. Despite technical flaws such as booster return ignition failure and engine shutdowns during the test, the successful flight verified core capabilities like high-thrust engine cluster operation, stage separation, thermal protection systems, and payload deployment.

More notably, the performance leap of Starship V3: its low Earth orbit payload capacity increased from 35 tons in V2 to over 100 tons, making it the most powerful operational launch vehicle in human history. This capability breakthrough directly influences the deployment pace of SpaceX's three major businesses. In connectivity, in the second half of 2026, the next-generation Starlink V3 satellites will be deployed, with each Starship capable of launching 60 satellites, and a downlink capacity of 1 Tbps—about 20 times the current V2 Mini satellites in orbit. In AI, the deployment plan for one million space-based compute satellites, starting as early as 2028, also relies on Starship's low-cost, high-frequency launch capability.

Several market analysts point out that SpaceX's valuation largely depends on its future vision rather than current fundamentals. Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities, states that a valuation of 1.75 trillion or 2 trillion USD cannot be justified solely by traditional financial metrics, but he also notes that many investors believe SpaceX could eventually become a company valued between 5 trillion and 10 trillion USD. The logic behind this judgment is that SpaceX has successfully integrated the three major tracks—rocket launches, satellite internet, and AI—into a synergistic "space economy complex."

SpaceX IPO Timeline and Key Milestones

According to the latest market expectations, SpaceX will launch its global roadshow on June 4, finalize the offering price on June 11, and list on Nasdaq Global Select Market as early as June 12. The IPO plans to allocate up to 30% of new shares to retail investors, which is uncommon for IPOs of similar scale, reflecting SpaceX's high regard for retail participation.

However, this also means that pre-listing pricing negotiations will be highly competitive. Over the past six months, SpaceX's valuation has experienced a "triple jump": by late 2025, internal equity transactions valued it at about 800 billion USD; after merging with xAI in February 2026, it rose to 1.25 trillion USD; the current IPO target valuation has further increased to 1.75 trillion USD. The capital markets are voting with real money for Elon Musk's "space civilization" vision, and this voting process is starting early in the pre-IPO market.

How Gate Pre-IPOs Help Users Get Ahead of SPCX

Ahead of the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, Gate has launched the SPCX asset certificate, becoming one of the first digital asset platforms to offer users pre-listing exposure to SpaceX. As the first project on Gate Pre-IPOs, SPCX uses a Mirror Note structured asset design, entering a 24/7 pre-market trading phase after distribution, allowing users to trade around the value changes of SPCX before the official IPO.

From a pricing perspective, market differences are quite evident. Traditional private market platforms, such as Forge Global, estimate SpaceX's per-share reference price at about 647 USD, corresponding to a valuation of approximately 1.54 trillion USD; Hiive's valuation is higher, at about 762 USD per share. Gate's pre-IPO subscription price before the 1:5 stock split was 590 USD, and after the split, the per-share subscription price was 118 USD. The pre-market spot trading price once reached 189.90 USD, with a total increase of 60.93%. This indicates that the pre-IPO market itself is a forward-looking window for price discovery and early speculation.

It is important to note that Gate's SPCX belongs to a Mirror Note and Contingent Payout Note structure, and does not represent actual SpaceX stock or equity. Users do not have voting rights, nor does it equate to IPO stock subscriptions. Its core logic is to reflect the value changes before and after SpaceX's listing, enabling users to participate in this "space economy pricing" through digital assets at an earlier stage.

Additionally, Gate Pre-IPOs offers several advantages: a low subscription threshold of 100 USDT, compared to traditional OTC platforms requiring 45-60 days settlement and charging 2%-4% fees; flexible exit mechanisms and no lock-up periods are more friendly to retail investors. As the IPO window approaches, SPCX will become more accessible for market pricing focus, making the price discovery in the pre-IPO phase more sensitive and efficient.

Summary

SpaceX is aiming for the largest IPO in human history, with a target valuation of 2 trillion USD, reflecting a systematic valuation of the "space economy" era by the capital markets. Starlink provides the current profit base, Starship determines the pace of technological deployment, and AI offers imagination for the next decade—these three are interconnected, forming the basic narrative framework for SpaceX's trillion-dollar valuation. The IPO window is set for mid-June, and before the official bell, Gate Pre-IPOs provides users with an early channel for price discovery.

Whether the final valuation lands at 1.75 trillion or 2 trillion USD, SpaceX's listing will be one of the most watched events in global capital markets in 2026. For investors seeking early positioning, understanding SpaceX's core business logic, key IPO timing, and managing positions and risks through Gate's Pre-IPOs products are pragmatic ways to gain an advantage in this historic capital event.

FAQ

Quand aura lieu précisément l'IPO de SpaceX ?

R : Selon les dernières prévisions du marché, SpaceX lancera sa tournée mondiale le 4 juin, fixera le prix d'émission le 11 juin, et sera listée sur Nasdaq Global Select Market dès le 12 juin, sous le code SPCX.

La valorisation de 2 trillions USD pour SpaceX est-elle raisonnable ?

R : D’un point de vue des indicateurs financiers traditionnels, le niveau de profit actuel de SpaceX ne justifie pas cette valorisation. Mais le marché valorise surtout son potentiel futur—croissance continue de la rentabilité de Starlink, capacité de lancement à faible coût de Starship, et le marché total adressable de 26,5 trillions USD pour l’IA.

Quelle différence y a-t-il entre SPCX sur Gate Pre-IPOs et l’action SpaceX ?

R : SPCX est un actif structuré Mirror Note, ne correspondant pas directement à des actions ou parts de SpaceX. Les utilisateurs n’ont pas de droits de vote ni d’équivalent à une souscription d’actions IPO. Son objectif principal est de refléter la valeur avant et après l’introduction en bourse, permettant une découverte de prix en temps réel via des actifs numériques.

Pourquoi les prix avant IPO de SpaceX diffèrent-ils autant selon les plateformes ?

R : Les différentes plateformes utilisent des structures de produits, mécanismes de règlement et clientèles variés. Les plateformes OTC traditionnelles (Forge, Hiive) servent principalement des investisseurs qualifiés, avec livraison réelle d’actions, périodes de blocage longues et frais élevés. Les produits Pre-IPOs sur CEX utilisent des expositions synthétiques ou des certificats d’actifs, avec une liquidité plus élevée, des seuils d’accès plus faibles, et des mécanismes de tarification différents.

Quel impact l’IPO de SpaceX aura-t-elle sur l’industrie aérospatiale commerciale ?

R : Si SpaceX s’introduit avec une valorisation de 1,75 à 2 trillions USD, cela établira un point de référence très élevé pour le secteur, pouvant accélérer la capitalisation d’autres entreprises aérospatiales commerciales, et pousser la compétition internationale à intensifier le développement de leurs industries spatiales.