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$BTC Outlook — Range-Bound With Downside Risk
📊 Current Situation
BTC down ~50% from $126,000 peak
Now trading in the low–mid $60Ks
Repeated rejection near $65,500
➡️ Underwater buyers are selling into rallies
⚖️ Base Case (August)
Expected range: $60,000 – $65,500
Market structure:
Range-bound / consolidation
No clear trend yet
⚠️ Bearish Scenario
Trigger: Hot inflation (CPI) print
Potential move: $55,000 – $58,000
➡️ Why:
Higher inflation → higher yields
Liquidity tightens → risk assets drop
🧠 Market Psychology
Many buyers from higher levels are:
Still underwater
Using rallies to exit p