#OneGate见证计划 #BTC突破86000美元关口 BTC's Fourth Attempt to Break $87,000 Fails! But a “Structural Tailwind” Is Taking Shape
The CFTC has officially classified SOL and XRP as commodities, increasing regulatory certainty. But $87,000 has become an “iron ceiling,” with BTC failing to break through three consecutive times.
I. First, the Market: BTC Is “Stuck” Around $86,000
Over the past 24 hours, BTC has traded narrowly between $86,000 and $86,700. As of press time, BTC was trading at approximately $86,164, up 0.1% over 24 hours.
Ethereum has moved sideways as well, repeatedly battling above $2,700. It is currently trading at approximately $2,714, down 0.2% over 24 hours.
But one key level has remained unbroken.
Since September 21, BTC has made its fourth attempt to break above $87,000, briefly touching it each time before quickly retreating. The previous attempt reached $86,995, just several hundred dollars below the 8-month high of $87,400, but it still failed to hold.
$87,000 is becoming an “iron ceiling.”
II. Why Can't It Rise? — Three “Ceilings” Are Pressuring It
Ceiling One: Treasury Yields Remain Above 5%
The 10-year Treasury yield remains around 5.25%, while the 30-year yield is approximately 5.69%, both at their highest levels since 2002.
High yields mean extremely high opportunity costs for non-yielding assets such as BTC. As long as yields do not fall, it will be difficult for BTC to hold above $87,000 sustainably.
Ceiling Two: ETF Flows Have Turned Into Outflows
Institutions are reducing positions in the short term. The latest data shows approximately $90 million in net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and $37 million in outflows from Ethereum ETFs on the day.
The wave of aggressive ETF inflows at the end of September, reaching $1 billion in a single day, has clearly slowed.
Ceiling Three: Long Liquidations Are Increasing
Liquidation data over the past 24 hours shows that long liquidations accounted for as much as 73%. Open interest has recovered to $55.9 billion, but the long-to-short ratio has fallen to 0.941, with ETH even lower at 0.903.
In other words, traders chasing longs at high levels are being “cleared out,” while short-side pressure is strengthening.
III. But a “Structural Tailwind” Is Taking Shape
The CFTC Has Officially Classified SOL and XRP as Commodities
This is the most important regulatory news today.
The U.S. CFTC has officially and explicitly classified SOL and XRP as commodities, providing regulatory certainty for their derivatives and institutional access.
What does this mean?
Against the backdrop of the CLARITY Act facing legislative obstacles, regulators are advancing the compliance of crypto assets through “rules” rather than “laws.” Classifying SOL and XRP as commodities means they no longer face the legal risk of “whether they are securities,” allowing institutions to participate with greater confidence.
This is another case of “advancing through a detour.” The legislation failed, but regulators are using their own authority to open the door step by step.
IV. Federal Reserve: October Rate-Hike Expectations “Slam on the Brakes”
Several Federal Reserve officials have spoken out in quick succession, sharply cooling expectations of an October rate hike.
New York Fed President Williams explicitly stated that there is “no need to rush into action” after the September rate hike. There may be one more hike this year, but there is no urgency to act in October.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson echoed this position: “More time may be needed” to assess economic trends.
Fed Governor Bowman was even more direct: There is no need for another rate adjustment this year.
CME data shows that the probability of an October rate hike has plunged from 70% to approximately 25%.
This is a short-term positive for the crypto market. No rate hike in October means reduced short-term pressure, but the possibility of “one more this year” has not been completely eliminated.
V. Technical Analysis: BTC Is Forming a “Converging Triangle”
Some analysts have observed that BTC is forming a converging triangle—the lows are gradually rising, while resistance around $87,000 is nearly horizontal.
This pattern usually means that volatility has been compressed to an extreme and a directional breakout is imminent.
• Break above $87,000: Could open room toward $89,000-$93,700
• Break below $85,000: Could lead to a retest of the $82,500 support, or even the lower $80,000 range
Rekt Capital's analysis is straightforward: BTC is trapped between the $82,500 support and $86,700 resistance. If $82,500 breaks, it could retest the $60,000-$80,000 2026 range; if $86,700 is decisively broken, the upside target is $93,700.
Trading Approach
1. Don't chase gains around $86,000: $87,000 has failed to break four consecutive times, making the risk-reward unfavorable
2. Watch the $85,000-$85,500 support: This is the first line of defense in the short term; holding it would keep the market range-bound
3. If $87,000 breaks on strong volume: It could open room toward $89,000-$93,700, at which point consider following the trend
4. If $85,000 breaks: Look first to $82,500, the key support marked by Rekt Capital
5. The October FOMC meeting (October 27-28) is the next key point: The market expects the Fed to “stand pat,” but if Waller sends an unexpected signal, it could trigger volatility.#每周来晒 $BTC