Globally, perpetual futures are one of the most popular ways to speculate on the future prices of cryptocurrencies. But until recently, U.S-based customers had almost no way to get involved. That changed in early June, when prediction market Kalshi became the first U.S. regulator-approved platform to offer perpetual futures trading to its customers.
By all accounts, this new financial product has been a smash success. In the first 24 hours, trading volume on Kalshi hit $100 million. In the first week, total trading volume rocketed past $1 billion. This is obviously big business, and one that could reshape the way people invest in crypto.
Perhaps not surprisingly, trading in perpetual futures is taking off as the crypto market has been in steep decline. Market bellwether Bitcoin (BTC +1.76%) is down more than 30% for the year, and more speculative altcoins are down as much as 60% for the year. It's hard to make money in a market like that.
And that's where perpetual futures come into the picture. Traders can use perpetual futures to take short positions in a cryptocurrency, making them a useful tool during down markets.
这正是永续合约发挥作用之处。交易者可以利用永续合约对加密货币做空，使其成为下跌市场中的有用工具。
So-called "perps" are futures contracts with no expiration date, enabling traders to speculate on the prices of cryptocurrencies without actually owning the underlying cryptocurrency. It's also possible to use leverage here, meaning your $100 investment might be used to control a $1,000 position.
The only caveat is that, given this leverage, even a relatively minor 10% market move might be enough to liquidate your position. Given how volatile the crypto market has been historically, it's quite possible that traders could be wiped out after just one bad day.
What's interesting is that Kalshi -- an online prediction market platform -- became the first to offer perpetual futures trading. It's a clear sign of the blurring of the lines between traditional financial markets, crypto markets, and online prediction markets.
This "blurriness" may hide some risks that are not so obvious to the end customer. These perpetual futures contracts are actually financial derivatives. Since they are derivatives (not securities), they are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and not by the SEC. That has already stoked some controversy, with some worried about the risks involved.
There have already been some spectacular crypto liquidations. In one recent 24-hour period, for example, nearly $1 billion was liquidated after a downward move by Bitcoin caught traders by surprise. One trader lost $38 million in a single day. That's the level of risk involved here, due to the leverage being used.
If you are thinking about investing in cryptocurrency, be aware of the risks involved. Perpetual futures are the newest way to trade crypto, but they might not be the best for many investors. For most, investing via a cryptocurrency exchange or via a single crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) might still be the best option.
永续期货交易在Kalshi上线首周达到10亿美元。下面是这对加密市场意味着什么。
Globally, perpetual futures are one of the most popular ways to speculate on the future prices of cryptocurrencies. But until recently, U.S-based customers had almost no way to get involved. That changed in early June, when prediction market Kalshi became the first U.S. regulator-approved platform to offer perpetual futures trading to its customers.
在全球范围内，永续合约是投机加密货币未来价格最流行的方式之一。但直到最近，美国客户几乎没有途径参与。这一情况在6月初发生了变化，预测市场平台Kalshi成为首家获得美国监管机构批准、向客户提供永续合约交易的平台。
By all accounts, this new financial product has been a smash success. In the first 24 hours, trading volume on Kalshi hit $100 million. In the first week, total trading volume rocketed past $1 billion. This is obviously big business, and one that could reshape the way people invest in crypto.
从各方面来看，这一新金融产品取得了巨大成功。在最初24小时内，Kalshi的交易量达到了1亿美元。第一周内，总交易量飙升至超过10亿美元。这显然是一桩大生意，并可能重塑人们投资加密货币的方式。
Image source: Getty Images.
图片来源：Getty Images。
A new way to make money in down markets
在下跌市场中赚钱的新方法
Perhaps not surprisingly, trading in perpetual futures is taking off as the crypto market has been in steep decline. Market bellwether Bitcoin (BTC +1.76%) is down more than 30% for the year, and more speculative altcoins are down as much as 60% for the year. It's hard to make money in a market like that.
或许并不令人意外的是，随着加密货币市场大幅下跌，永续合约交易正蓬勃发展。市场风向标比特币（BTC +1.76%）今年已下跌超过30%，而更具投机性的山寨币今年已下跌多达60%。在这样的市场中赚钱很难。
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CRYPTO: BTC
加密货币：BTC
Bitcoin
比特币
Today's Change
今日变动
(1.76%) $1064.92
(1.76%) 1064.92美元
Current Price
当前价格
$61485.00
61485.00美元
Key Data Points
关键数据点
Market Cap
市值
$1.2T
12000亿亿美元
Day's Range
当日区间
$60340.00 - $62060.00
60340.00美元 - 62060.00美元
52wk Range
52周区间
$57945.16 - $126079.89
57945.16美元 - 126079.89美元
Volume
成交量
36.4B
364亿
And that's where perpetual futures come into the picture. Traders can use perpetual futures to take short positions in a cryptocurrency, making them a useful tool during down markets.
这正是永续合约发挥作用之处。交易者可以利用永续合约对加密货币做空，使其成为下跌市场中的有用工具。
So-called "perps" are futures contracts with no expiration date, enabling traders to speculate on the prices of cryptocurrencies without actually owning the underlying cryptocurrency. It's also possible to use leverage here, meaning your $100 investment might be used to control a $1,000 position.
所谓的“永续合约”是没有到期日的期货合约，使交易者能够在不实际持有基础加密货币的情况下对其价格进行投机。这里还可以使用杠杆，这意味着你100美元的投资可能被用来控制1000美元的头寸。
The only caveat is that, given this leverage, even a relatively minor 10% market move might be enough to liquidate your position. Given how volatile the crypto market has been historically, it's quite possible that traders could be wiped out after just one bad day.
唯一的警告是，鉴于这种杠杆，即使市场出现相对较小的10%波动，也可能足以让你的头寸被清算。考虑到加密货币市场历史上的波动性，交易者很可能在仅仅一个糟糕的日子后就被彻底清空。
Risk factors
风险因素
What's interesting is that Kalshi -- an online prediction market platform -- became the first to offer perpetual futures trading. It's a clear sign of the blurring of the lines between traditional financial markets, crypto markets, and online prediction markets.
有趣的是，Kalshi——一个在线预测市场平台——成为首个提供永续合约交易的机构。这清晰表明了传统金融市场、加密货币市场和在线预测市场之间的界限正在模糊。
This "blurriness" may hide some risks that are not so obvious to the end customer. These perpetual futures contracts are actually financial derivatives. Since they are derivatives (not securities), they are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and not by the SEC. That has already stoked some controversy, with some worried about the risks involved.
这种“模糊性”可能隐藏着一些对终端客户不那么明显的风险。这些永续合约实际上是金融衍生品。由于它们是衍生品（而非证券），因此由商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）监管，而非美国证券交易委员会（SEC）。这已经引发了一些争议，有人担心其中涉及的风险。
There have already been some spectacular crypto liquidations. In one recent 24-hour period, for example, nearly $1 billion was liquidated after a downward move by Bitcoin caught traders by surprise. One trader lost $38 million in a single day. That's the level of risk involved here, due to the leverage being used.
已经发生了一些惊人的加密货币清算事件。例如，在最近的一个24小时内，比特币的下跌走势让交易者措手不及，导致近10亿美元被清算。一位交易者在一天内损失了3800万美元。这就是由于使用杠杆而涉及的风险水平。
If you are thinking about investing in cryptocurrency, be aware of the risks involved. Perpetual futures are the newest way to trade crypto, but they might not be the best for many investors. For most, investing via a cryptocurrency exchange or via a single crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) might still be the best option.
如果你正在考虑投资加密货币，请注意其中涉及的风险。永续合约是交易加密货币的最新方式，但对许多投资者而言可能并非最佳选择。对大多数人来说，通过加密货币交易所或单一加密货币交易所交易基金（ETF）进行投资可能仍然是首选。