Tonight's non-farm payrolls are an important indicator to test the strength of US employment growth since the beginning of the year

But tonight's non-farm payrolls can basically be considered bearish
Currently, market expectations are mainly centered around 8.5, in line with the forecast
The past few data points show ADP private employment increased by 122,000, described as a rare broader recruitment in recent years, and the market is less willing to bet on non-farm payrolls significantly below expectations
JOLTS data shows job vacancies jumped to 7.618 million in April
Initial jobless claims also rose to a four-month high
These data make the market more worried that tonight's figures will be more pessimistic than expected
Another factor is wages, with market expectations for average hourly earnings at a monthly rate of 0.3% and an annual rate of 3.4%, if employment and wages both strengthen, the dollar and US bond yields will rise, suppressing other risk assets like gold and BTC
Summary: If tonight's data is relatively strong, it will likely suppress rate cut expectations, which is unfavorable for crypto rebounds; if it is relatively weak, it may give risk assets a recovery window, but it must also be accompanied by the market regaining key structural levels.
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