😱Monday the shock! The signing on the US-Iran negotiation table, oil prices crashed directly!

WTI$BZ ‌Today down another 4%+, Brent oil$CL ‌ cumulative decline over 9%. The Strait of Hormuz is open, Iran's oil is returning to the market.

War risk premium of $10-15 per barrel is basically cleared—this news is bearish for oil prices, but what about the crypto market?

Oil falling = inflation pressure easing = the Fed's confidence to raise interest rates is not as strong.

Although federal funds futures show a 76% chance of rate hike in September, don’t forget—Bank of America and Deutsche Bank just changed their tone, saying they will wait for PCE data before deciding. The core PCE on Thursday and Friday is the final weight. If inflation isn’t as explosive as expected, the rate hike expectations will shrink back. Bearish? Not necessarily.

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🌍Looking at the market—$BTC ‌ still holding above $60,000.

Currently trading in the 63,900-64,200 range, after testing 61,500 in early June, it stabilized. Three consecutive weeks closing above 63,000—this pattern looks a bit like a bottoming process before.

64,500-65,000 is short-term resistance, a breakout targets 67K;

Below 63,750 is the intraday defense line, further down 60K-62K is the strong support zone for 2026.

In plain words: the psychological barrier of $60,000 is being fiercely defended by the bulls.

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🟣$ETH ‌It’s a bit tragic—hovering around 1728, completely being drained by Bitcoin.

ETH peaked over 1,779, then a super long upper shadow hammered it back down. BOLL is tightening, MACD is converging, a trend reversal is near but the direction is not clear. If 1,700 can’t hold, look for 1,680 below. ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to decline, funds are flowing into Bitcoin.

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📊The ETF side is also interesting—on June 22, Bitcoin ETF total net outflow was $6.819 billion.

Scary to look at?

Breaking it down: Blackstone IBIT outflowed $17.198 billion, but Fidelity FBTC inflow was $5.738 billion, ARK inflow was $6.4 billion, Grayscale Mini BTC inflow was $4.814 billion—not a full retreat, but funds are switching.

⚠️The question is—can the $60,000 bottom hold?

The Fed is hawkish, ETF outflows haven’t fully reversed yet, but geopolitical risks are retreating, oil prices are falling, whales are still accumulating. Both bulls and bears are holding back big moves, just waiting for a trigger.

Do you think BTC can hold $60,000? Will ETH break below 1700 first? Drop your opinions in the comments, follow me for real-time market shifts! 👇

#美伊谈判第一轮结束