Polymarket 35 % contre le prix du marché 12 mois d'augmentation des taux, qui est le plus précis ?

Mars Finance information, May 25th, according to Bloomberg, U.S. bond investors expect new Federal Reserve Chair Powell to prioritize the central bank's credibility in fighting inflation rather than the rate cuts promoted by President Trump, and the market has already priced in a rate hike in December through instruments like swaps.
It is worth noting that on Polymarket, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year is only reported at 35%.